Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2665 GP	H223 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3232 GP · 3y
TOI	21.52	21.58	20.56	20.32	21.31
PP TOI	3.60	3.60	3.63	3.54	3.56
G	51	44	60	39	51
A	72	78	72	80	69
PTS	123	122	132	119	120
PPP	48	53	52	55	48
SOG	250	232	251	228	249
PIM	40	33	20	38	47
Hits	48	43	49	40	52
Blocks	28	19	16	22	31

Sample: 65 GP · 1,041 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

1Connor McDavid214

2Nathan MacKinnon210

3Leon Draisaitl176

4Macklin Celebrini160

5Auston Matthews151

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextProtect star PP1 value; discount Edmonton depth scoring. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 84% above where it started (12.93 in the first half, 23.76 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 72% above where it started (0.54 in the first half, 0.93 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (3.60).

Bottom of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (0.75).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightning94% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG
Connor McDavidC · Edmonton Oilers90% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG
Kirill KaprizovLW · Minnesota Wild88% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Sebastian AhoC · Carolina Hurricanes85% match
shared: A, PPP, G, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Leon Draisaitl is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.52	21.58	21.31	+1%
5v5 TOI	16.15	16.02	15.99	+0%
PP TOI	3.60	3.60	3.56	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 19 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.52: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.15: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.60: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.85	5.59	6.16	-9%
G/60	0.92	0.92	0.89	+3%
iSH%	15.70	16.46	14.46	+14%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.64	+1%
iCF/60	–	11.06	11.36	-3%
iSCF/60	–	5.53	6.78	-18%
iHDCF/60	–	2.02	2.49	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 19 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 16.5% sits near the 14.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.54→0.93 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.36	11.34	9.70	+17%
IPP	71.49	69.47	73.95	-6%
1A/60	1.09	1.09	1.16	-6%
2A/60	0.51	0.46	0.52	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 19 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.3%, IPP 69.5%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.60	3.60	3.56	+1%
PP iSH%	25.50	23.21	27.17	-15%
PP SOG/60	16.94	17.71	18.47	-4%
PP ixG/60	–	3.03	3.01	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 19 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.6 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.17	1.27	1.62	-21%
Hits/60	1.97	1.79	2.23	-20%
Blks/60	0.86	0.75	1.23	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 19 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.79/60 (21st pct league-wide) → 1.97 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.58/60 and 2nd-half 0.58 below the 0.75 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.86/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.23 3-yr mark.