Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3232 GP · 3y
TOI	22.31	22.26	20.98	20.56	22.65
PP TOI	4.25	4.30	4.01	4.58	4.15
G	45	54	42	67	44
A	84	76	73	79	85
PTS	129	130	115	146	130
PPP	39	31	25	37	42
SOG	369	361	336	385	386
PIM	42	40	53	26	40
Hits	61	66	68	64	51
Blocks	49	36	27	45	56

Sample: 80 GP · 1,313 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

1Connor McDavid214

2Nathan MacKinnon210

3Leon Draisaitl176

4Macklin Celebrini160

5Auston Matthews151

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 53 pace in the second half after 26 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 54% below where it started (1.72 in the first half, 0.78 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (4.30).

Top of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (10.05).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Macklin CelebriniC · San Jose Sharks92% match
shared: SOG, A, PPP, G
Jake GuentzelLW,RW · Tampa Bay Lightning89% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Matt BoldyLW,RW · Minnesota Wild89% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Sidney CrosbyC · Pittsburgh Penguins85% match
shared: A, G, PPP, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nathan MacKinnon is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.31	22.26	22.65	-2%
5v5 TOI	16.69	16.42	16.92	-3%
PP TOI	4.25	4.30	4.15	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.31: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.69: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 4.25: established top role held near 4.3 — the late dip (Q4 4.0) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	10.05	10.05	10.87	-8%
G/60	1.29	1.42	1.16	+22%
iSH%	12.83	14.13	10.70	+32%
ixG/60	–	0.92	0.88	+5%
iCF/60	–	17.59	18.96	-7%
iSCF/60	–	9.87	10.32	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.65	3.68	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.92 (88th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.88 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.04 (1st half) to 0.82 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.31	12.29	10.45	+18%
IPP	76.58	75.05	78.86	-5%
1A/60	1.23	1.32	1.19	+11%
2A/60	0.68	0.69	0.66	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.3% vs a 10.4% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	4.25	4.30	4.15	+3%
PP iSH%	10.93	11.23	10.72	+5%
PP SOG/60	17.32	17.10	18.00	-5%
PP ixG/60	–	2.08	1.94	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive PPP regression for MacKinnon/Necas on a system fix. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~4.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.78	0.73	1.36	-46%
Hits/60	2.31	2.51	2.00	+25%
Blks/60	1.25	1.23	2.17	-43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.51/60 (30th pct league-wide) → 2.31 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.57/60 and 2nd-half 0.78 below the 1.23 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.25/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.17 3-yr mark.