Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3225 GP · 3y
TOI	20.21	20.25	18.67	19.46	20.04
PP TOI	4.02	4.08	3.84	4.32	3.63
G	39	38	44	33	39
A	47	51	49	52	45
PTS	86	89	93	85	84
PPP	28	30	31	30	27
SOG	231	222	236	207	255
PIM	61	62	78	46	34
Hits	46	40	43	36	58
Blocks	44	42	40	43	44

Sample: 81 GP · 1,104 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

4Jason Robertson142

5Jack Hughes135

6Matt Boldy130

7Jake Guentzel117

8Andrei Svechnikov113

9Filip Forsberg111

10Juraj Slafkovsky104

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 78 pace in the second half after 46 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 44 pace in the second half after 33 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (4.08).

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 25% below his 3-year rate last season (10.52 against 14.10).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dylan LarkinC · Detroit Red Wings89% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Nathan MacKinnonC · Colorado Avalanche89% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Matt BoldyLW,RW · Minnesota Wild89% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Macklin CelebriniC · San Jose Sharks88% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jake Guentzel is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.21	20.25	20.04	+1%
5v5 TOI	13.99	13.64	15.21	-10%
PP TOI	4.02	4.08	3.63	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.21: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.99: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 4.02: established top role held near 4.1 — the late dip (Q4 3.5) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.15	7.06	7.89	-11%
G/60	1.04	1.14	0.95	+21%
iSH%	14.57	16.15	11.99	+35%
ixG/60	–	1.01	0.98	+3%
iCF/60	–	13.58	14.41	-6%
iSCF/60	–	9.94	9.89	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	5.16	5.03	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.01 (95th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.98 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 7.06 vs 7.89) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.41	12.82	9.72	+32%
IPP	66.96	69.11	62.83	+10%
1A/60	0.82	0.92	0.76	+22%
2A/60	0.48	0.49	0.40	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.8% vs a 9.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	4.02	4.08	3.63	+12%
PP iSH%	16.44	13.78	17.18	-20%
PP SOG/60	11.41	10.52	14.10	-25%
PP ixG/60	–	2.31	2.82	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~4.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.75	1.41	1.37	+3%
Hits/60	2.32	2.01	2.58	-22%
Blks/60	1.75	1.68	1.86	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.14/60 and 2nd-half 2.12 vs a 2.01 season rate (2.58 3-yr) (24th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.32/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.68/60 (23rd pct league-wide) → 1.75 projected.