Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	20.01	20.25	19.34	18.46	18.32
PP TOI	3.96	3.89	4.04	3.74	3.06
G	41	45	41	49	37
A	59	51	56	46	53
PTS	100	96	97	95	90
PPP	39	41	42	40	29
SOG	272	295	272	318	252
PIM	29	32	44	20	20
Hits	55	48	48	48	64
Blocks	38	34	38	30	31

Sample: 82 GP · 1,228 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

1Brady Tkachuk196

2Leon Draisaitl176

3Kirill Kaprizov151

4Jason Robertson142

5Jack Hughes135

6Matt Boldy130

7Jake Guentzel117

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindHold a top-tier forward baseline; strong multi-year value. · Analytics research compilation

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 44 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 43% above his 3-year rate last season (1.08 against 0.75).

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 27% above his 3-year rate last season (3.89 against 3.06).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 38 pace in the second half after 30 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kirill KaprizovLW · Minnesota Wild92% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A
Alex DeBrincatLW · Detroit Red Wings88% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Connor McDavidC · Edmonton Oilers88% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jason Robertson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.01	20.25	18.32	+11%
5v5 TOI	15.04	14.98	14.24	+5%
PP TOI	3.96	3.89	3.06	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.01: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.04: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.96: same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 4.1, Q4 4.4) over the full-year 3.9

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.71	9.87	8.33	+19%
G/60	1.24	1.22	1.13	+8%
iSH%	12.81	12.36	13.55	-9%
ixG/60	–	1.08	0.75	+43%
iCF/60	–	18.17	16.14	+13%
iSCF/60	–	10.70	8.05	+33%
iHDCF/60	–	4.10	3.20	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.08 (97th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.75 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 19% (5v5 SOG/60 9.87 vs 8.33) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.82	10.86	10.71	+1%
IPP	73.11	71.88	76.30	-6%
1A/60	0.68	0.59	0.84	-30%
2A/60	0.61	0.44	0.64	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.9%, IPP 71.9%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 18.17 vs 16.14) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.10 vs 3.20) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.96	3.89	3.06	+27%
PP iSH%	15.80	21.12	14.30	+48%
PP SOG/60	13.88	13.35	17.27	-23%
PP ixG/60	–	2.13	2.25	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~4.0 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (21.1% vs 14.3% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.13) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.54	1.27	0.82	+54%
Hits/60	2.44	2.15	3.06	-30%
Blks/60	1.33	1.27	1.39	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.65/60 and 2nd-half 2.08 below the 2.15 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.44/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.06 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.45/60 and 2nd-half 1.44 vs a 1.27 season rate (1.39 3-yr) (9th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.33/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.