Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H239 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	18.47	18.50	17.84	16.90	18.26
PP TOI	3.31	3.33	3.26	3.39	3.33
G	37	41	36	45	31
A	40	44	48	40	37
PTS	77	85	84	85	68
PPP	25	23	21	25	26
SOG	277	287	278	295	248
PIM	30	19	15	22	36
Hits	50	38	35	41	69
Blocks	40	39	42	36	37

Sample: 82 GP · 1,146 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

10Juraj Slafkovsky104

11Cutter Gauthier104

12J.T. Miller102

13Alex DeBrincat100

14Tim Stützle100

15Brandon Hagel99

16Dylan Holloway99

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 42% above where it started (0.61 in the first half, 0.86 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 32% above last season, 38 to 50.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (9.84).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth90% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Jason RobertsonLW · Dallas Stars88% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Kirill KaprizovLW · Minnesota Wild86% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Wyatt JohnstonC,RW · Dallas Stars86% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex DeBrincat is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.47	18.50	18.26	+1%
5v5 TOI	14.43	13.98	13.98	+0%
PP TOI	3.31	3.33	3.33	-0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.47: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.43: same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 14.6, Q4 15.1) over the full-year 14.0
PP TOI → 3.31: established top role held near 3.3 — the late dip (Q4 3.1) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.84	9.84	8.79	+12%
G/60	0.92	0.89	0.87	+2%
iSH%	9.37	9.04	9.90	-9%
ixG/60	–	1.00	0.84	+19%
iCF/60	–	20.46	16.93	+21%
iSCF/60	–	9.58	9.06	+6%
iHDCF/60	–	2.77	3.18	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold a high shot/goal baseline; flag linemate dependency. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.00 (94th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.84 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 12% (5v5 SOG/60 9.84 vs 8.79) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.12 (1st half) to 0.89 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.39	9.78	8.69	+12%
IPP	73.67	76.05	69.43	+10%
1A/60	0.66	0.73	0.66	+10%
2A/60	0.46	0.73	0.33	+121%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.8%, IPP 76.1%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 20.46 vs 16.93) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.73 vs 3-yr 0.33) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.31	3.33	3.33	-0%
PP iSH%	19.47	21.13	18.26	+16%
PP SOG/60	15.38	15.62	14.41	+8%
PP ixG/60	–	3.05	2.37	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.05 vs 2.37) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.85	0.63	1.68	-62%
Hits/60	2.37	1.88	3.37	-44%
Blks/60	1.84	1.83	1.80	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.76/60 and 2nd-half 1.59 below the 1.88 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.37/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.37 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.20/60 and 2nd-half 1.92 vs a 1.83 season rate (1.80 3-yr) (27th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.84/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.