Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 370 GP · 1y
TOI	21.70	21.32	20.51	19.24	19.79
PP TOI	3.67	3.66	3.60	3.73	3.14
G	40	45	43	47	29
A	64	70	63	77	45
PTS	104	115	106	124	74
PPP	33	33	32	34	26
SOG	300	287	319	255	276
PIM	43	44	30	58	33
Hits	55	53	59	47	43
Blocks	63	53	60	46	62

Sample: 82 GP · 1,311 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

1Connor McDavid214

2Nathan MacKinnon210

3Leon Draisaitl176

4Macklin Celebrini160

5Auston Matthews151

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSupport Smith's baseline via Celebrini linemate quality. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindTreat Celebrini as an ascending elite ceiling, not a floor play; draft-strategy context. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindBoost toward a top-line 70-point sophomore line. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 50% below where it started (1.56 in the first half, 0.78 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 49% above his 3-year rate last season (15.58 against 10.48).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 30 pace in the second half after 58 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 98th percentile league-wide (3.66).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matt BoldyLW,RW · Minnesota Wild93% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, Blocks
Nathan MacKinnonC · Colorado Avalanche92% match
shared: SOG, A, PPP, G
Jake GuentzelLW,RW · Tampa Bay Lightning88% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knights82% match
shared: SOG, A, PPP, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Macklin Celebrini is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.70	21.32	19.79	+8%
5v5 TOI	16.93	16.00	15.10	+6%
PP TOI	3.67	3.66	3.14	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 21

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.70: holds last year's role; age 20 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 16.93: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 16.7, Q4 17.3) over the full-year 16.0; age 20 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.67: established top role held near 3.7 — the late dip (Q4 2.8) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; age 20 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.07	7.64	8.68	-12%
G/60	1.02	1.19	0.91	+31%
iSH%	12.62	15.58	10.48	+49%
ixG/60	–	0.78	0.80	-3%
iCF/60	–	14.55	16.06	-9%
iSCF/60	–	9.47	9.19	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	2.97	3.12	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 21

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Chernyshov as a top-six SJS winger for 2026-27 with real G/A output; his usage with Celebrini raises the assist/PP ceiling.

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 15.6% vs a 10.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.78 (73rd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 12.6% pulls the goal rate ~14% down.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 7.64 vs 8.68) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 20 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.32	12.72	8.49	+50%
IPP	84.18	85.03	81.60	+4%
1A/60	0.97	1.14	0.74	+54%
2A/60	0.43	0.50	0.40	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 21

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Chernyshov as a top-six SJS winger for 2026-27 with real G/A output; his usage with Celebrini raises the assist/PP ceiling.

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.7% vs a 8.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.67	3.66	3.14	+17%
PP iSH%	12.64	10.97	13.11	-16%
PP SOG/60	14.78	14.58	16.63	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	1.67	1.91	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 21

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost toward a top-six/PP1 line if paired with Celebrini. · Fantasy hockey transition analysis

ContextPP role steady at ~3.7 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.54	1.56	1.59	-2%
Hits/60	2.12	2.15	1.93	+11%
Blks/60	2.48	2.24	2.84	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 21

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.81/60 and 2nd-half 2.25 vs a 2.15 season rate (1.93 3-yr) (27th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.12/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.24/60 (40th pct league-wide) → 2.48 projected.