Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.
Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)
ContextSpeculative 5v5 upside for young Penguins; PP1 PPP stays with veterans. · Coaching landscape report
Metrics worth highlighting
The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year
Second-half surge
1A/60
1A/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (0.59 in the first half, 1.54 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.
Second-half fade
G
all5v5
Goals ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 49 in the first, per 82 games.
Below his 3-year rate
SOG/60
SOG/60 ran 29% below his 3-year rate last season (5.90 against 8.35).
Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.
Similar & complementary players
Similar makeup Forward
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
the profile below
vs Similar
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
complements fill the gaps
Deployment
Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Dan Muse (PIT)
Last year: Dan Muse full season (1st yr) — no change
Metric
26-27 proj
2025-26
Prev 3
Diff
TOI
18.91
19.23
20.20
-5%
5v5 TOI
14.23
14.81
15.40
-4%
PP TOI
3.05
3.10
3.55
-13%
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP 19 · 21 · 16 · 12
TOI*
5v5 TOI
PP TOI
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
5v5 TOI
PP TOI
TOI → 18.91: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.23: role tapered late (Q4 13.6 vs 14.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 3.05: holds last year's role
Shooting — volume & conversion
How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 16.1% vs a 11.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.81 (78th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 13.5% pulls the goal rate ~18% down.
RiskShot volume down 29% (5v5 SOG/60 5.90 vs 8.35) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.
TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.73→0.98 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.
RiskAge 39 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.
Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense
Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.0% vs a 9.8% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.
Power play
PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextPP role steady at ~3.0 PP TOI/gp.
Physical — PIM · hits · blocks
Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextHits role-stable at 3.28/60 (42nd pct league-wide) → 3.19 projected.
TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.58/60 and 2nd-half 1.92 vs a 1.67 season rate (1.64 3-yr) (22nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.88/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.