Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3235 GP · 3y
TOI	17.90	18.18	16.69	16.95	17.91
PP TOI	2.70	2.71	2.54	2.88	3.13
G	29	31	34	28	36
A	39	40	39	41	40
PTS	68	71	73	69	76
PPP	21	21	32	10	28
SOG	198	192	167	217	264
PIM	30	28	18	38	38
Hits	90	74	73	75	118
Blocks	31	24	30	18	40

Sample: 82 GP · 1,154 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

32Evgeni Malkin70

33Quinton Byfield68

34Mathew Barzal66

35John Tavares66

36Morgan Geekie64

37Elias Pettersson63

38Trevor Zegras62

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 32 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 38 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 43% below his 3-year rate last season (3.43 against 5.99).

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 26% below his 3-year rate last season (0.52 against 0.71).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tage ThompsonC,RW · Buffalo Sabres90% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Filip ForsbergLW · Nashville Predators89% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Sidney CrosbyC · Pittsburgh Penguins88% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth88% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where John Tavares is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.90	18.18	17.91	+1%
5v5 TOI	13.89	14.08	13.76	+2%
PP TOI	2.70	2.71	3.13	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.90: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.89: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.70: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.63	6.29	8.31	-24%
G/60	0.67	0.78	0.94	-17%
iSH%	11.80	12.40	11.37	+9%
ixG/60	–	1.00	1.08	-7%
iCF/60	–	12.58	14.99	-16%
iSCF/60	–	9.41	10.31	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	4.94	5.64	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 12.4% sits near the 11.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 1.00 (94th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 24% (5v5 SOG/60 6.29 vs 8.31) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.16 (1st half) to 0.85 (2nd).

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.97	10.40	9.46	+10%
IPP	72.12	72.24	71.98	+0%
1A/60	0.62	0.52	0.71	-26%
2A/60	0.51	0.73	0.44	+65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.4%, IPP 72.2%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.73 vs 3-yr 0.44) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.70	2.71	3.13	-13%
PP iSH%	17.05	22.24	15.59	+43%
PP SOG/60	16.18	14.57	20.39	-29%
PP ixG/60	–	3.00	3.97	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.7 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (22.2% vs 15.6% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 3.00) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.33	1.25	1.74	-28%
Hits/60	4.23	3.43	5.99	-43%
Blks/60	1.46	1.14	1.93	-41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.43/60 (43rd pct league-wide) → 4.23 projected.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (6th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.