Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2674 GP	H241 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3226 GP · 3y
TOI	19.67	18.96	16.96	18.23	19.69
PP TOI	3.13	3.21	2.66	3.90	3.62
G	▼21	17	11	23	32
A	▼41	40	46	33	54
PTS	▼62	56	57	56	86
PPP	22	24	26	22	26
SOG	160	146	138	156	208
PIM	18	22	12	35	15
Hits	81	74	71	78	99
Blocks	97	120	113	128	83

Sample: 74 GP · 989 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

34Mathew Barzal66

35John Tavares66

36Morgan Geekie64

37Elias Pettersson63

38Trevor Zegras62

39Brayden Point62

40Brock Nelson60

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Recency-weighted hedge already pulls him to ~69; this trims the residual bounce-back toward the stale 3-yr peak to ~64. His low on-ice SH% (7.4) rebounds some, but the underlying decline is real.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSet a rebound baseline around a point-per-game pace, not the elite ceiling. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 68% below where it started (20.47 in the first half, 6.53 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 64% below his 3-year rate last season (0.36 against 1.00).

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (5.58 against 3.60).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
John HaydenC · Seattle Kraken87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Panthers87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Michael McCarronC · Minnesota Wild87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Elias Pettersson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.67	18.96	19.69	-4%
5v5 TOI	13.83	13.38	13.56	-1%
PP TOI	3.13	3.21	3.62	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 11 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.67: holds last year's role; Set a rebound baseline around a point-per-game pace, not the elite ceiling.
5v5 TOI → 13.83: holds last year's role; Set a rebound baseline around a point-per-game pace, not the elite ceiling.
PP TOI → 3.13: role tapered late (Q4 2.7 vs 3.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.79	4.79	6.34	-24%
G/60	0.62	0.61	0.82	-26%
iSH%	12.85	12.73	12.93	-2%
ixG/60	–	0.67	0.73	-8%
iCF/60	–	9.82	12.31	-20%
iSCF/60	–	6.36	7.67	-17%
iHDCF/60	–	2.79	3.43	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 11 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 12.7% sits near the 12.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.67 (57th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 24% (5v5 SOG/60 4.79 vs 6.34) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.79 (1st half) to 0.61 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.14	7.41	11.96	-38%
IPP	72.26	69.78	75.29	-7%
1A/60	0.55	0.36	1.00	-64%
2A/60	0.48	0.30	0.63	-52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 11 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.4%, IPP 69.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.13	3.21	3.62	-11%
PP iSH%	14.52	12.12	15.19	-20%
PP SOG/60	9.09	8.33	12.55	-34%
PP ixG/60	–	1.55	1.69	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 11 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.80	0.97	0.59	+65%
Hits/60	4.14	3.88	4.54	-15%
Blks/60	4.78	5.58	3.60	+55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 11 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.88/60 (48th pct league-wide) → 4.14 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.50/60 and 2nd-half 5.36 below the 5.58 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.78/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.60 3-yr mark.