Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3244 GP · 3y
TOI	19.23	19.65	19.03	18.00	18.47
PP TOI	3.24	3.28	3.60	2.95	2.73
G	30	33	27	40	32
A	33	32	38	27	35
PTS	63	66	65	66	67
PPP	▲21	18	18	18	14
SOG	196	188	197	179	223
PIM	32	37	40	33	23
Hits	36	38	34	43	41
Blocks	58	66	69	62	44

Sample: 81 GP · 1,084 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

37Elias Pettersson63

38Trevor Zegras62

39Brayden Point62

40Brock Nelson60

41Alex Laferriere57

42Ryan Hartman54

43Nazem Kadri54

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 51% below where it started (19.88 in the first half, 9.75 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 38 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 40% below his 3-year rate last season (0.44 against 0.74).

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 41% below his 3-year rate last season (8.13 against 13.76).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nico HischierC · New Jersey Devils88% match
shared: Blocks, G, PPP, SOG
Wyatt JohnstonC,RW · Dallas Stars88% match
shared: G, Blocks, PPP, SOG
Bryan RustRW · Pittsburgh Penguins88% match
shared: Blocks, G, PPP, SOG
Nick SchmaltzC,RW · Utah Mammoth83% match
shared: PPP, Blocks, G, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brock Nelson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.23	19.65	18.47	+6%
5v5 TOI	13.39	13.39	14.03	-5%
PP TOI	3.24	3.28	2.73	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.23: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.39: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.24: same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.6, Q4 3.4) over the full-year 3.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.14	7.36	7.92	-7%
G/60	1.05	1.11	1.13	-1%
iSH%	14.75	15.08	14.20	+6%
ixG/60	–	1.10	0.88	+26%
iCF/60	–	12.61	14.15	-11%
iSCF/60	–	10.07	9.73	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	5.03	4.49	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.10 (98th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.88 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.98→1.23 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.79	9.35	10.46	-11%
IPP	66.92	63.25	72.54	-13%
1A/60	0.56	0.44	0.74	-40%
2A/60	0.49	0.55	0.46	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.3%, IPP 63.3%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.03 vs 4.49) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.24	3.28	2.73	+20%
PP iSH%	15.30	27.80	11.78	+136%
PP SOG/60	9.27	8.13	13.76	-41%
PP ixG/60	–	1.54	1.81	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (27.8% vs 11.8% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.54) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.90	1.88	1.05	+79%
Hits/60	1.76	1.88	2.00	-6%
Blks/60	2.66	2.77	1.98	+40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.62/60 and 2nd-half 1.52 below the 1.88 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.76/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.00 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.94/60 and 2nd-half 2.98 vs a 2.77 season rate (1.98 3-yr) (57th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.66/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.