Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2677 GP	H236 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	18.20	19.03	17.25	18.26	18.33
PP TOI	3.40	3.26	2.86	3.60	2.97
G	22	17	18	16	29
A	▲35	36	25	46	37
PTS	▲57	53	43	62	66
PPP	20	20	16	24	21
SOG	216	227	206	245	274
PIM	39	32	27	36	57
Hits	54	53	55	52	70
Blocks	34	32	34	30	27

Sample: 77 GP · 1,113 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

40Brock Nelson60

41Alex Laferriere57

42Ryan Hartman54

43Nazem Kadri54

44Robert Thomas53

45Dylan Strome53

46Pierre-Luc Dubois52

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Traded CGY -> COL 2026-Mar-06. Deployment re-anchored on his 16-game COL finish, not the blended full season: 5v5 down to ~13.3 (deeper COL middle six), PP up to 3.4 (real COL PP role). Net line ~55 -> ~53 (EV counts trimmed ~5%, PP lifted ~7%). Lightly hedged above the raw 15-game COL sample for full-season settling. 2026-07-27: assists nudged +9% on top (see adjust) - the deployment bet stands, the rate was repeating his career-worst year.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 46 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 29% above last season, 17 to 22.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 28% below his 3-year rate last season (2.48 against 3.47).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kevin FialaLW,RW · Los Angeles Kings91% match
shared: SOG, PPP, PIM, G
Sebastian AhoC · Carolina Hurricanes87% match
shared: SOG, PPP, A, G
Carter VerhaegheLW · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: SOG, G
Dylan LarkinC · Detroit Red Wings86% match
shared: SOG, PPP, A, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nazem Kadri is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year (COL, traded): Ryan Huska CGY · pre-trade → Jared Bednar COL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.20	19.03	18.33	+4%
5v5 TOI	13.30	14.47	14.15	+2%
PP TOI	3.40	3.26	2.97	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.20: headline TOI reconciled to the COL role: 13.3 (5v5) + 3.4 (PP) + ~1.5 (PK) = ~18.2, down from the blended 18.7 that still carried Calgary's larger EV minutes.
5v5 TOI → 13.30: COL 2C role, not Calgary's. Traded to COL 2026-Mar-06; his Q4 (16 GP in COL) 5v5 TOI was 13.24 vs ~14.5-15.1 in Q1-Q3 on CGY. COL is deeper down the middle (MacKinnon line eats EV minutes), so his go-forward 5v5 role is the COL number, not the blended full-season 13.95 the engine still carries. Set to 13.3 (COL sample, whisper up for full-season integration).
PP TOI → 3.40: holds a real COL power-play role. His Q4 PP TOI was 3.40 (his best quarter since Q1) - COL used him on a heavy PP2 / rotating PP1. The engine's soft star-hold tapered him to 3.19 off the CGY season; the COL finish says 3.4 is the go-forward level.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.99	8.24	9.95	-17%
G/60	0.59	0.59	0.78	-24%
iSH%	7.40	7.16	7.80	-8%
ixG/60	–	0.94	0.87	+8%
iCF/60	–	16.21	18.96	-15%
iSCF/60	–	9.75	9.51	+2%
iHDCF/60	–	4.42	3.45	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.94 (90th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.87 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 8.24 vs 9.95) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.56	7.24	8.24	-12%
IPP	71.62	70.59	73.79	-4%
1A/60	0.59	0.54	0.76	-29%
2A/60	0.39	0.43	0.45	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.2%, IPP 70.6%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.42 vs 3.45) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.40	3.26	2.97	+10%
PP iSH%	15.61	10.45	17.07	-39%
PP SOG/60	10.91	11.48	14.46	-21%
PP ixG/60	–	2.14	2.36	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (10.5% vs 17.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.58	1.29	2.29	-44%
Hits/60	2.73	2.48	3.47	-28%
Blks/60	1.80	1.45	1.24	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.48/60 (30th pct league-wide) → 2.73 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.02/60 and 2nd-half 1.79 vs a 1.45 season rate (1.24 3-yr) (15th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.80/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.