Overview
@HockeyBangers
Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.
| Per 82 GP | 2026-27projection adj | 2025-2656 GP | H216 GP | H140 GP | Prev 3232 GP · 3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOI | 18.90 | 19.12 | 18.14 | 17.84 | 18.07 |
| PP TOI | 3.00 | 3.41 | 3.29 | 3.45 | 3.08 |
| G | ▼27 | 26 | 20 | 29 | 31 |
| A | 36 | 32 | 42 | 28 | 42 |
| PTS | ▼63 | 59 | 62 | 57 | 73 |
| PPP | 26 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 28 |
| SOG | 230 | 215 | 179 | 230 | 239 |
| PIM | 51 | 50 | 51 | 49 | 54 |
| Hits | ▼60 | 57 | 97 | 41 | 65 |
| Blocks | 28 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 25 |
Sample: 56 GP · 810 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates
Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.
Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hits trimmed to 60. The engine projects 72, above every season he has recorded: his per-82 hits run 63, 67, 63 and 57 across 2022-26, trending gently down at 30. Nothing in his usage supports a career-high hit total, so this pulls him back inside his own range, close to the external 54 without going all the way there. Power-play time hedged to 3.00 from a projected 3.38, since assuming his 3.41 role survives a coaching change is optimistic with Byfield taking a top-unit slot. Goals cut 8%: his 5v5 goal rate climbed from 0.57 to 1.04 per 60 across 4 years while his expected-goal rate stayed flat between 0.77 and 0.86, so the gain is finishing rather than process, and he outscored his own expected goals by 21% in a 56-game season. The quieter worry is his 5v5 playmaking, where primary assists fell from 1.21 to 0.37 per 60 and he recorded zero secondary assists at 5v5 across the whole season. His 10 secondary assists all came with the man advantage or on odd-man ice.
Metrics worth highlighting
Hits ran at a 97 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.
Assists ran at a 42 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.
1A/60 ran 54% below his 3-year rate last season (0.37 against 0.81).
iSH% ran 54% above his 3-year rate last season (13.77 against 8.96).
Similar & complementary players
Deployment
| Metric | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOI | 18.90 | 19.12 | 18.07 | +6% |
| 5v5 TOI | 14.48 | 14.48 | 14.08 | +3% |
| PP TOI | 3.00 | 3.41 | 3.08 | +11% |
Shooting — volume & conversion
How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).
| Metric (5v5) | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOG/60 | 7.45 | 7.55 | 8.60 | -12% |
| G/60 | 0.89 | 1.04 | 0.77 | +35% |
| iSH% | 11.94 | 13.77 | 8.96 | +54% |
| ixG/60 | – | 0.86 | 0.82 | +5% |
| iCF/60 | – | 16.28 | 16.62 | -2% |
| iSCF/60 | – | 8.29 | 8.58 | -3% |
| iHDCF/60 | – | 3.33 | 3.47 | -4% |
Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense
Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.
| Metric (5v5) | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on-ice SH% | 7.24 | 6.49 | 8.46 | -23% |
| IPP | 75.79 | 82.94 | 71.02 | +17% |
| 1A/60 | 0.51 | 0.37 | 0.81 | -54% |
| 2A/60 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.38 | -100% |
Power play
PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.
| Metric | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP TOI | 3.00 | 3.41 | 3.08 | +11% |
| PP iSH% | 18.62 | 10.54 | 20.90 | -50% |
| PP SOG/60 | 11.89 | 11.95 | 13.29 | -10% |
| PP ixG/60 | – | 1.89 | 1.94 | -3% |
Physical — PIM · hits · blocks
Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.
| Metric (5v5) | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIMs/60 | 2.18 | 2.22 | 2.13 | +4% |
| Hits/60 | 2.69 | 2.07 | 2.96 | -30% |
| Blks/60 | 1.41 | 1.55 | 1.21 | +28% |