Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3210 GP · 3y
TOI	18.24	18.18	16.57	17.02	18.60
PP TOI	3.66	3.37	3.62	3.13	3.33
G	41	52	67	37	36
A	33	38	38	37	31
PTS	74	89	105	74	67
PPP	24	29	31	28	19
SOG	269	261	301	222	278
PIM	12	14	12	16	12
Hits	43	51	39	62	54
Blocks	24	21	24	19	25

Sample: 81 GP · 1,086 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

20Mitch Marner88

21Artemi Panarin85

22Steven Stamkos81

23Cole Caufield80

24Pavel Dorofeyev79

25Kevin Fiala79

26Tomas Hertl78

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 67 pace in the second half after 37 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 70% above his 3-year rate last season (19.98 against 11.77).

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 105 pace in the second half after 74 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 38% above his 3-year rate last season (2.91 against 2.11).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jets85% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Jordan KyrouRW · Washington Capitals83% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Tyler ToffoliLW,RW · San Jose Sharks82% match
shared: SOG, G
Pavel DorofeyevLW,RW · New York Rangers81% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Cole Caufield is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.24	18.18	18.60	-2%
5v5 TOI	13.21	13.41	14.17	-5%
PP TOI	3.66	3.37	3.33	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.24: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.21: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.66: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.6, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.4; Raise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.38	9.11	10.12	-10%
G/60	1.58	1.82	1.19	+53%
iSH%	16.86	19.98	11.77	+70%
ixG/60	–	1.14	1.00	+14%
iCF/60	–	17.01	18.15	-6%
iSCF/60	–	9.61	8.85	+9%
iHDCF/60	–	3.65	3.35	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress goals off peak finishing; cap by TOI and playmaker dependence. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.14 (99th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 1.00 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 10% (5v5 SOG/60 9.11 vs 10.12) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.94→1.36 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.54	12.62	10.65	+18%
IPP	71.67	73.24	69.39	+6%
1A/60	0.68	0.61	0.70	-13%
2A/60	0.31	0.28	0.34	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.6% vs a 10.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.66	3.37	3.33	+1%
PP iSH%	16.83	17.49	16.36	+7%
PP SOG/60	14.01	13.84	13.63	+2%
PP ixG/60	–	2.91	2.11	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.4→3.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.6, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.4; Raise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.91 vs 2.11) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.57	0.77	0.52	+47%
Hits/60	2.32	2.65	2.58	+3%
Blks/60	1.05	0.99	1.13	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.48/60 and 2nd-half 2.05 below the 2.65 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.32/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.58 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 0.99/60 and 2nd-half 1.15 vs a 0.99 season rate (1.13 3-yr) (3rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.05/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.