Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3242 GP · 3y
TOI	17.62	17.83	16.86	16.23	18.42
PP TOI	3.17	3.20	3.20	3.19	3.65
G	33	42	52	32	34
A	29	24	28	20	40
PTS	62	66	80	52	74
PPP	25	26	38	14	32
SOG	200	206	229	183	229
PIM	50	58	60	56	43
Hits	82	89	103	75	80
Blocks	44	36	38	34	46

Sample: 82 GP · 1,092 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

25Bo Horvat82

26Sam Bennett81

27Joel Eriksson Ek81

28Steven Stamkos81

29Dylan Cozens80

30Roope Hintz79

31Tomas Hertl78

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 38 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 74% above where it started (9.73 in the first half, 16.93 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 52% below his 3-year rate last season (0.33 against 0.69).

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 37% below his 3-year rate last season (1.48 against 2.35).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders84% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP
Brad MarchandLW,RW · Florida Panthers84% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, PIM
Tomas HertlC,LW · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, Hits
Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth83% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Steven Stamkos is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.62	17.83	18.42	-3%
5v5 TOI	13.33	13.33	13.58	-2%
PP TOI	3.17	3.20	3.65	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.62: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.33: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.17: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.23	6.42	6.33	+1%
G/60	0.88	0.99	0.75	+32%
iSH%	14.06	15.42	11.83	+30%
ixG/60	–	0.87	0.70	+24%
iCF/60	–	13.67	11.79	+16%
iSCF/60	–	8.51	7.67	+11%
iHDCF/60	–	4.34	3.25	+33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress goals; discount for declining TOI and age. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.87 (84th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.70 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.67	9.69	9.58	+1%
IPP	66.36	66.80	65.06	+3%
1A/60	0.47	0.33	0.69	-52%
2A/60	0.30	0.33	0.36	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 66.8%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.67 vs 11.79) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.34 vs 3.25) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.17	3.20	3.65	-13%
PP iSH%	17.16	21.24	17.16	+24%
PP SOG/60	16.11	15.11	18.60	-19%
PP ixG/60	–	1.99	2.26	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.96	2.09	2.01	+4%
Hits/60	4.02	4.39	4.00	+10%
Blks/60	1.83	1.48	2.35	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.39/60 (54th pct league-wide) → 4.02 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.48/60 (16th pct league-wide) → 1.83 projected.