Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H238 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3239 GP · 3y
TOI	14.94	14.97	13.78	15.25	16.83
PP TOI	2.88	2.95	2.88	3.00	3.07
G	23	20	21	18	33
A	27	31	31	31	29
PTS	50	51	53	49	63
PPP	18	16	22	10	20
SOG	182	178	184	173	250
PIM	14	10	17	4	19
Hits	47	50	43	56	64
Blocks	23	32	21	42	19

Sample: 79 GP · 914 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

88Ridly Greig19

89Jonah Gadjovich19

90Michael Pezzetta19

91Tyler Toffoli18

92Dakota Joshua17

93Mackie Samoskevich17

94Zachary L'Heureux16

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 53% below where it started (0.97 in the first half, 0.45 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 31% below his 3-year rate last season (7.02 against 10.15).

Below his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 55% below his 3-year rate last season (0.39 against 0.87).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brock BoeserLW,RW · Vancouver Canucks88% match
shared: G
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Jared McCannC,LW · Seattle Kraken84% match
shared: SOG, G
Jordan KyrouRW · Washington Capitals83% match
shared: SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tyler Toffoli is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.94	14.97	16.83	-11%
5v5 TOI	11.22	11.58	12.67	-9%
PP TOI	2.88	2.95	3.07	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.94: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.22: role tapered late (Q4 10.6 vs 11.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 2.88: established top role held near 2.9 — the late dip (Q4 2.1) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.81	7.02	10.15	-31%
G/60	0.72	0.72	1.11	-35%
iSH%	10.63	10.26	10.90	-6%
ixG/60	–	0.68	0.91	-25%
iCF/60	–	15.28	18.15	-16%
iSCF/60	–	7.54	9.29	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	2.82	3.43	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 10.3% sits near the 10.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.68 (59th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 31% (5v5 SOG/60 7.02 vs 10.15) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.60→0.81 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.04	10.67	9.18	+16%
IPP	71.92	73.82	67.78	+9%
1A/60	0.66	0.72	0.55	+30%
2A/60	0.40	0.59	0.41	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.7%, IPP 73.8%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.59 vs 3-yr 0.41) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.88	2.95	3.07	-4%
PP iSH%	13.23	9.69	15.79	-39%
PP SOG/60	15.49	15.99	14.00	+14%
PP ixG/60	–	2.91	2.38	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.9 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (9.7% vs 15.8%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.53	0.39	0.87	-55%
Hits/60	2.93	3.02	3.35	-10%
Blks/60	1.25	1.71	1.01	+70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.21/60 and 2nd-half 2.85 below the 3.02 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.93/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.35 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.95/60 and 2nd-half 1.02 below the 1.71 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.25/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.01 3-yr mark.