Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 351 GP · 1y
TOI	15.80	15.87	15.04	15.63	13.52
PP TOI	2.71	2.78	2.72	2.85	1.41
G	▲24	25	24	25	11
A	▲33	27	23	32	19
PTS	▲57	52	47	57	30
PPP	▲17	17	16	18	6
SOG	▲170	169	136	204	142
PIM	18	25	21	29	13
Hits	78	78	82	74	72
Blocks	28	31	34	28	23

Sample: 82 GP · 1,027 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

71Carter Verhaeghe31

72Gavin McKenna31

73Jonathan Huberdeau31

74Josh Doan30

75Alexis Lafrenière28

76Jake Neighbours24

77Marcus Foligno24

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Goal/assist split corrected — the prior set read G 18 / A 33. The TOTAL was right (51 against a 52-point pace) but the split was inverted: his own rates paced 24.9 goals and 27.1 assists, so roughly seven goals had been moved into the assist column. Because PTS re-derives as G+A, the total looked correct everywhere and the error stayed invisible. Goals set to 24 (his own pace; the two outside reads land 23.7 and 25.6) and assists held at 33, which is already above his 27.1 pace and inside both reads. The original bet this entry was built on still stands: his 2025-26 power play was real (2.78 TOI, 4.47 points/60, ~17 PPP pace) and his PP time projects at or above Quinn's.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextCap the projection at a middle-six ice-time ceiling until a bigger role is confirmed. · Fantasy hockey forward analysis

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 98% above his 3-year rate last season (2.78 against 1.41).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 110% above his 3-year rate last season (11.50 against 5.48).

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 52% below where it started (13.22 in the first half, 6.39 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 136 pace in the second half after 204 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruins88% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks86% match
Brock BoeserLW,RW · Vancouver Canucks86% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers86% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Josh Doan is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: A, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.80	15.87	13.52	+17%
5v5 TOI	12.34	12.53	11.77	+6%
PP TOI	2.71	2.78	1.41	+98%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.80: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.34: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.71: established top role held near 2.8 — the late dip (Q4 2.0) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.49	7.65	7.30	+5%
G/60	0.69	0.88	0.40	+120%
iSH%	9.21	11.50	5.48	+110%
ixG/60	–	1.13	0.85	+33%
iCF/60	–	14.42	15.90	-9%
iSCF/60	–	9.05	7.40	+22%
iHDCF/60	–	5.72	3.60	+59%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.13 (98th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.85 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.29 (1st half) to 0.97 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.62	10.68	7.46	+43%
IPP	62.98	61.27	68.18	-10%
1A/60	0.70	0.70	0.70	+0%
2A/60	0.38	0.35	0.40	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.7% vs a 7.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.72 vs 3.60) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.71	2.78	1.41	+98%
PP iSH%	23.37	24.36	23.09	+5%
PP SOG/60	7.53	9.73	10.87	-10%
PP ixG/60	–	2.23	2.76	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.7 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.00	1.34	0.60	+123%
Hits/60	4.39	4.32	4.50	-4%
Blks/60	1.61	1.75	1.40	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.32/60 (53rd pct league-wide) → 4.39 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.75/60 (24th pct league-wide) → 1.61 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.