Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2650 GP	H214 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3241 GP · 3y
TOI	17.95	18.13	16.01	17.57	17.95
PP TOI	2.90	2.91	2.21	3.19	2.82
G	▲19	16	13	17	19
A	▲35	25	13	29	39
PTS	▲54	41	27	46	58
PPP	18	11	12	11	19
SOG	139	138	170	125	144
PIM	42	67	35	80	40
Hits	54	49	46	51	60
Blocks	45	49	47	50	43

Sample: 50 GP · 660 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

70Anders Lee32

71Carter Verhaeghe31

72Gavin McKenna31

73Jonathan Huberdeau31

74Josh Doan30

75Alexis Lafrenière28

76Jake Neighbours24

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Injury-affected 2025-26; bet on a rebound, but HEDGED DOWN 2026-07-27 (CGY pass). We had him at 58 — exactly his prev3 per-82 — for a 33.1-year-old with a four-year Calgary decline coming off hip surgery and a 50-game season. That is a full return to his 3-yr average with no age haircut, which is what the 33+ rule exists to prevent, and it stacked three boosts in the same direction (PP restored to 2.9, G x1.10, A x1.12). PP set of 2.9 KEPT — the H2 PP cliff really was injury-driven, not a lost role. Mults cut instead. Lands ~54-55, at the top of the outside range (51.4 / 53.8 / 55.2), so this is a hedge and not a fade.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 146% above where it started (6.30 in the first half, 15.49 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 64% above last season, 11 to 18.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 106% above his 3-year rate last season (3.73 against 1.81).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitals90% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, A
Frank NazarC,RW · Chicago Blackhawks85% match
shared: Blocks
William EklundLW,RW · Ottawa Senators84% match
shared: Blocks, A
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks84% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jonathan Huberdeau is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Owen TippettLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: Hits, SOG
Bobby McMannLW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits
Timo MeierLW,RW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Huska (CGY)

Last year: Ryan Huska full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.95	18.13	17.95	+1%
5v5 TOI	13.03	13.21	13.63	-3%
PP TOI	2.90	2.91	2.82	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 14 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.95: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.03: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.90: restore his PP1 QB minutes to last year's 2.91. The engine tempered him to 2.71 off an H2 PP cliff (2.21), but that drop was injury-driven, not a lost role.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.14	5.18	5.26	-1%
G/60	0.54	0.55	0.55	+0%
iSH%	10.54	10.62	10.41	+2%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.62	+5%
iCF/60	–	10.54	9.75	+8%
iSCF/60	–	6.45	6.23	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.63	2.83	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 14 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.62 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.28	6.97	8.06	-14%
IPP	66.76	66.51	67.42	-1%
1A/60	0.73	0.73	0.77	-5%
2A/60	0.26	0.18	0.38	-53%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 14 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.0%, IPP 66.5%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.54 vs 9.75) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.63 vs 2.83) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.90	2.91	2.82	+3%
PP iSH%	16.35	15.05	17.30	-13%
PP SOG/60	9.30	8.24	9.18	-10%
PP ixG/60	–	1.44	1.41	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 14 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.9 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.61	3.73	1.81	+106%
Hits/60	2.49	2.36	3.01	-22%
Blks/60	2.06	2.09	2.01	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 14 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.36/60 (29th pct league-wide) → 2.49 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.09/60 (35th pct league-wide) → 2.06 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.09/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.