Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2678 GP	H241 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3157 GP · 2y
TOI	18.93	18.54	16.41	18.87	19.10
PP TOI	3.40	2.91	2.25	3.63	2.71
G	▲22	16	9	23	17
A	▲47	40	43	36	37
PTS	▲69	56	52	60	54
PPP	24	17	12	22	17
SOG	182	186	166	209	146
PIM	27	34	20	49	30
Hits	72	76	87	63	49
Blocks	52	54	48	60	62

Sample: 78 GP · 1,110 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

32Quinton Byfield68

33Rickard Rakell67

34Nikolaj Ehlers66

35William Eklund66

36Owen Tippett66

37Matthew Knies64

38Morgan Geekie64

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline is his 2025-26 San Jose season. Trade OTT -> largest projected value gain if the PP role lands (bet on the minutes, 2.91 -> 3.4); 60-65 pt target.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 41% above last season, 17 to 24.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 66% above his 3-year rate last season (3.78 against 2.28).

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 38% below where it started (3.64 in the first half, 2.27 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mikael GranlundC,RW · Anaheim Ducks93% match
shared: Blocks, A
Elias LindholmC · Boston Bruins88% match
shared: Blocks, A
Jonathan HuberdeauLW · Calgary Flames84% match
shared: Blocks, A
Frank NazarC,RW · Chicago Blackhawks83% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where William Eklund is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year (SJS, traded): Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.93	18.54	19.10	-3%
5v5 TOI	14.30	14.24	14.22	+0%
PP TOI	3.40	2.91	2.71	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 21

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.93: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 14.30: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.40: inherits the PP1 role Brady Tkachuk vacated in Ottawa (2.91 San Jose -> ~3.4 PP TOI); PP jumps from ~16 toward the ~25 PPP Tkachuk left, off the minutes

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.12	6.91	4.92	+41%
G/60	0.59	0.59	0.38	+56%
iSH%	8.22	8.54	7.71	+11%
ixG/60	–	0.75	0.61	+22%
iCF/60	–	12.53	10.13	+24%
iSCF/60	–	7.08	5.62	+26%
iHDCF/60	–	4.11	3.04	+35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 21

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.75 (68th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.61 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 41% (5v5 SOG/60 6.91 vs 4.92) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.26	9.46	8.64	+10%
IPP	64.67	65.75	61.37	+7%
1A/60	0.70	0.65	0.67	-3%
2A/60	0.41	0.43	0.41	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 21

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.5%, IPP 65.7%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.53 vs 10.13) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.11 vs 3.04) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.40	2.91	2.71	+7%
PP iSH%	18.65	8.30	21.56	-62%
PP SOG/60	9.49	9.52	9.18	+4%
PP ixG/60	–	1.79	2.03	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 21

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost toward a top-line/PP1 playmaker line; largest potential value gain if PP jumps from 16 to ~25 PPP. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.9→3.4 PP TOI/gp (inherits the PP1 role Brady Tkachuk vacated in Ottawa (2.91 San Jose -> ~3.4 PP TOI); PP jumps from ~16 toward the ~25 PPP Tkachuk left, off the minutes) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.06	1.40	0.94	+49%
Hits/60	3.59	3.78	2.28	+66%
Blks/60	2.49	2.59	2.61	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 21

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.42/60 and 2nd-half 4.59 vs a 3.78 season rate (2.28 3-yr) (47th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.59/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.41/60 and 2nd-half 2.52 below the 2.59 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.49/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.61 3-yr mark.