Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2658 GP	H235 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3231 GP · 3y
TOI	19.00	19.17	18.45	17.08	19.34
PP TOI	2.95	3.18	3.03	3.41	2.81
G	19	27	28	26	16
A	39	31	29	34	44
PTS	58	58	57	60	59
PPP	19	17	23	7	19
SOG	153	165	156	180	151
PIM	25	25	19	36	28
Hits	49	45	34	62	70
Blocks	55	58	64	49	59

Sample: 58 GP · 752 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

57Mark Kastelic39

58Anton Lundell38

59Frank Nazar35

60Mikael Granlund34

61Dmitri Voronkov33

62Shane Pinto32

63Matt Duchene29

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP TOI 2.95, up from 2.8. Two outside projection sources both read him on the top unit to start; his own regular-season record (season 3.18, Q4 3.16, four-year floor 2.66) says the playoff dip was the outlier, not the trend. Kept below his actual so the young core can still take the unit. Lands ~58, matching the outside points consensus.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 7 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 finished the year 130% above where it started (1.56 in the first half, 3.59 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 85% above his 3-year rate last season (2.14 against 1.15).

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 43% above his 3-year rate last season (0.77 against 0.54).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

William EklundLW,RW · Ottawa Senators93% match
shared: Blocks, A
Elias LindholmC · Boston Bruins90% match
shared: Blocks, PPP, A
Ryan O'ReillyC · Nashville Predators84% match
shared: Blocks, A, PPP
Jonathan HuberdeauLW · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: Blocks, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mikael Granlund is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.00	19.17	19.34	-1%
5v5 TOI	13.11	12.98	13.71	-5%
PP TOI	2.95	3.18	2.81	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 16 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.00: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.11: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.95: Raised from 2.8. The old number leaned on a small playoff sample (~2:26) against four seasons of stable regular-season PP work: 2.66 / 2.98 / 2.82 / 3.18, never below 2.66 and trending up. He was not demoted during the season — Q4 PP TOI was 3.16, essentially his season rate. Terry's ~30-game absence also opens a top-unit forward slot early. Held under his 3.18 actual: a PP1/PP2 mix, not a lock.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.09	5.42	5.19	+4%
G/60	0.56	0.64	0.49	+30%
iSH%	10.93	11.81	9.50	+24%
ixG/60	–	0.77	0.54	+43%
iCF/60	–	10.76	9.34	+15%
iSCF/60	–	5.90	5.23	+13%
iHDCF/60	–	3.03	2.25	+35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 16 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.77 (71st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.54 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.59→0.80 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.27	8.02	9.05	-11%
IPP	67.77	68.63	65.19	+5%
1A/60	0.60	0.48	0.66	-28%
2A/60	0.51	0.64	0.48	+35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 16 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 68.6%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.76 vs 9.34) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.03 vs 2.25) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.64 vs 3-yr 0.48) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.95	3.18	2.81	+13%
PP iSH%	14.10	22.85	7.77	+194%
PP SOG/60	10.61	11.38	8.31	+37%
PP ixG/60	–	2.14	1.15	+85%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 16 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.0 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.14 vs 1.15) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.74	0.80	1.18	-32%
Hits/60	1.96	2.07	3.32	-38%
Blks/60	2.53	2.71	2.25	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 16 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.94/60 and 2nd-half 1.42 below the 2.07 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.96/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.32 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.71/60 (55th pct league-wide) → 2.53 projected.