Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2664 GP	H224 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3230 GP · 3y
TOI	18.10	19.15	17.91	17.75	16.15
PP TOI	2.20	2.68	2.21	2.84	1.36
G	17	23	12	28	15
A	34	33	39	33	25
PTS	51	56	51	61	40
PPP	15	19	25	16	6
SOG	170	177	176	184	170
PIM	46	43	57	37	45
Hits	87	96	114	94	71
Blocks	39	45	28	57	45

Sample: 64 GP · 837 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

55Boone Jenner41

56Logan Cooley40

57Mark Kastelic39

58Anton Lundell38

59Frank Nazar35

60Mikael Granlund34

61Dmitri Voronkov33

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Corrected for the Barkov vacancy. Nearly everything good in his 2025-26 line came from a season the number 1 centre missed from start to finish, and the power-play trail is the clearest read on it: 1.65, 1.16 and 1.29 in the 3 years before, then 2.68 with Barkov out. The engine carried 2.38 of that forward. Power play goes to 2.2 and 5v5 to 12.5, both still above his pre-2025-26 role, because the second-unit job is real on both outside charts and he is 24 with room to grow into it.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindBoost top-line stars' TOI-driven baseline; discount depth-center scoring. · Fantasy coaching primer

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 97% above his 3-year rate last season (2.68 against 1.36).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 53% below his 3-year rate last season (0.29 against 0.62).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Quinton ByfieldC,LW · Los Angeles Kings87% match
shared: PIM
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Mason McTavishC · St. Louis Blues86% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Tyson FoersterLW · Philadelphia Flyers86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Anton Lundell is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, G
Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, G
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.10	19.15	16.15	+19%
5v5 TOI	12.50	13.09	12.27	+7%
PP TOI	2.20	2.68	1.36	+97%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.10: Headline ice time reconciled with the components: 13.77 at even strength, 2.2 on the power play, 2.11 on a penalty kill he genuinely works.
5v5 TOI → 12.50: Same correction at even strength. The middle-6 minutes he inherited with Barkov out come back down, and 12.5 still sits above where he was before that opening.
PP TOI → 2.20: His 2.68 came from the season Barkov missed, and the quarters show it: 3.41, 2.26, 2.21, then a 4-game 3.44 too thin to read. Before that he ran 1.65, 1.16 and 1.29. The engine carried most of that vacancy forward at 2.38. 2.2 holds him well above his pre-2025-26 role, since both reads do give him the second unit, without paying him for Barkov's absence twice.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.59	6.59	7.63	-14%
G/60	0.69	0.79	0.60	+32%
iSH%	10.40	11.99	7.82	+53%
ixG/60	–	0.83	0.71	+16%
iCF/60	–	13.54	13.65	-1%
iSCF/60	–	7.45	6.76	+10%
iHDCF/60	–	3.80	3.25	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.83 (79th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.71 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 6.59 vs 7.63) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.55	8.96	7.88	+14%
IPP	65.34	65.50	65.07	+1%
1A/60	0.50	0.29	0.62	-53%
2A/60	0.41	0.43	0.40	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.0%, IPP 65.5%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.80 vs 3.25) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.20	2.68	1.36	+97%
PP iSH%	8.52	19.05	5.55	+243%
PP SOG/60	5.44	7.35	10.36	-29%
PP ixG/60	–	1.58	1.61	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.7→2.2 PP TOI/gp (His 2.68 came from the season Barkov missed, and the quarters show it: 3.41, 2.26, 2.21, then a 4-game 3.44 too thin to read. Before that he ran 1.65, 1.16 and 1.29. The engine carried most of that vacancy forward at 2.38. 2.2 holds him well above his pre-2025-26 role, since both reads do give him the second unit, without paying him for Barkov's absence twice.) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (19.0% vs 5.6% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.58) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.37	2.15	2.32	-7%
Hits/60	4.64	4.87	3.94	+24%
Blks/60	1.52	1.86	2.08	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.52/60 and 2nd-half 5.52 vs a 4.87 season rate (3.94 3-yr) (58th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.64/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.88/60 and 2nd-half 0.88 below the 1.86 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.52/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.08 3-yr mark.