Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2629 GP	H28 GP	H121 GP	Prev 3158 GP · 2y
TOI	17.28	17.30	16.46	16.59	17.06
PP TOI	2.17	2.22	1.98	2.31	2.23
G	26	37	31	39	23
A	16	11	13	11	16
PTS	42	48	44	49	39
PPP	9	11	10	12	8
SOG	167	173	205	160	160
PIM	57	62	47	68	42
Hits	88	76	72	78	92
Blocks	58	71	80	67	53

Sample: 29 GP · 380 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

62Lawson Crouse39

63Valeri Nichushkin38

64Alex Steeves38

65Tyson Foerster36

66Brock Boeser36

67Matvei Michkov34

68Dmitri Voronkov33

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSupport 5v5 baselines for Flyers transition forwards. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 60% above where it started (0.55 in the first half, 0.89 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 75% above his 3-year rate last season (23.27 against 13.30).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 45% above last season, 11 to 16.

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 62% above where it started (1.81 in the first half, 2.93 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wild89% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Shane PintoC · Ottawa Senators88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Dmitri VoronkovC,LW · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Anton LundellC · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tyson Foerster is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.28	17.30	17.06	+1%
5v5 TOI	13.17	13.11	13.58	-4%
PP TOI	2.17	2.22	2.23	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 6 · 0 · 8

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.28: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.17: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.17: role tapered late (Q4 2.0 vs 2.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.09	6.79	6.32	+8%
G/60	1.24	1.58	0.84	+88%
iSH%	17.49	23.27	13.30	+75%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.69	-6%
iCF/60	–	12.00	12.75	-6%
iSCF/60	–	6.79	7.44	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	2.68	3.28	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 6 · 0 · 8

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 23.3% vs a 13.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 17.5% pulls the goal rate ~22% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.55→0.89 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.49	12.41	9.21	+35%
IPP	63.35	66.55	59.43	+12%
1A/60	0.23	0.16	0.28	-43%
2A/60	0.33	0.16	0.39	-59%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 6 · 0 · 8

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.4% vs a 9.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.17	2.22	2.23	-1%
PP iSH%	15.18	16.70	15.18	+10%
PP SOG/60	15.80	16.77	11.22	+49%
PP ixG/60	–	2.28	1.85	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 6 · 0 · 8

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.2 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.28 vs 1.85) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.70	1.26	1.93	-35%
Hits/60	4.27	3.95	4.59	-14%
Blks/60	3.07	3.31	2.60	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 6 · 0 · 8

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.95/60 (49th pct league-wide) → 4.27 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.96/60 and 2nd-half 3.96 vs a 3.31 season rate (2.60 3-yr) (68th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.07/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.