Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 380 GP · 1y
TOI	15.19	14.84	14.26	14.00	16.68
PP TOI	2.37	2.18	2.29	2.08	2.82
G	▲24	20	22	18	27
A	▲38	31	33	30	38
PTS	▲62	52	55	48	65
PPP	13	12	14	10	17
SOG	173	165	168	162	204
PIM	54	72	66	78	47
Hits	32	33	32	35	30
Blocks	18	19	18	20	23

Sample: 81 GP · 967 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

64Alex Steeves38

65Tyson Foerster36

66Brock Boeser36

67Matvei Michkov34

68Dmitri Voronkov33

69Zach Benson33

70Anders Lee32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Held well below the 90-pt ceiling: that ceiling is gated by whether Philadelphia grants a consistent top-six role after a year of low ice time and scratches.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSupport 5v5 baselines for Flyers transition forwards. · Coaching landscape report

ContextHigh ceiling gated by deployment; do not project the ceiling until a top-six role is secure. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 102% above where it started (1.28 in the first half, 2.58 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 122% above his 3-year rate last season (4.15 against 1.87).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 23% above last season, 31 to 38.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: PIM, A
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyers85% match
shared: PIM, A
JJ PeterkaLW,RW · Boston Bruins81% match
Beckett SenneckeRW · Anaheim Ducks81% match
shared: PIM, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matvei Michkov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
Rickard RakellLW,RW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
Alex OvechkinLW,RW · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Dylan CozensC · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.19	14.84	16.68	-11%
5v5 TOI	12.15	11.94	12.82	-7%
PP TOI	2.37	2.18	2.82	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.19: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 12.15: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 2.37: same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.3, Q4 2.5) over the full-year 2.2; age 21 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.04	7.81	8.02	-3%
G/60	0.83	0.74	0.88	-16%
iSH%	10.34	9.48	10.97	-14%
ixG/60	–	0.81	0.90	-10%
iCF/60	–	14.26	13.57	+5%
iSCF/60	–	7.44	6.85	+9%
iHDCF/60	–	3.84	3.22	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextBuy-low: talent supports a step up, but gate on deployment/coach trust. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 9.5% sits near the 11.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.81 (78th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.42	10.74	9.85	+9%
IPP	72.76	69.47	78.52	-12%
1A/60	0.81	0.81	0.82	-1%
2A/60	0.57	0.43	0.64	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.7%, IPP 69.5%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.84 vs 3.22) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.37	2.18	2.82	-23%
PP iSH%	15.47	13.81	16.67	-17%
PP SOG/60	10.14	9.85	12.78	-23%
PP ixG/60	–	1.95	1.77	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.2→2.4 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.3, Q4 2.5) over the full-year 2.2; age 21 riser — small growth bias) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.95 vs 1.77) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.22	4.15	1.87	+122%
Hits/60	1.78	1.92	1.58	+22%
Blks/60	1.08	1.18	1.29	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.92/60 (23rd pct league-wide) → 1.78 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.51/60 and 2nd-half 1.07 below the 1.18 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.29 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.