Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2665 GP	H238 GP	H127 GP	Prev 3146 GP · 2y
TOI	16.17	15.89	14.83	16.57	14.67
PP TOI	2.50	1.73	0.95	2.83	1.24
G	▲19	17	18	14	12
A	▲39	38	40	35	21
PTS	▲58	54	58	50	33
PPP	▲14	6	0	15	3
SOG	151	146	138	158	122
PIM	▼55	53	61	43	54
Hits	48	50	60	36	39
Blocks	34	28	24	34	36

Sample: 65 GP · 835 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

66Brock Boeser36

67Matvei Michkov34

68Dmitri Voronkov33

69Zach Benson33

70Anders Lee32

71Carter Verhaeghe31

72Gavin McKenna31

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Growth baked in: 17-38-55 -> 19-39-58. Our previous line was his 2025-26 pace almost exactly (G 16.5, A 37.8, SOG 146, hits 50 by his own rates), i.e. no development at all for a 21-year-old who just cleared his breakout threshold and is the strongest breakout and sleeper call on this roster in the outside sets. Both of those land 59.5 and 61.5; 58 stops short of both because his second-unit power-play spot is genuinely at risk with Kulich back and Helenius arriving, and one set's ceiling for him is explicitly conditioned on first-unit time its own table does not give him. Most of the lift is goals (17 -> 19), which is where both reads have him; assists already matched. Note the count set is doing the work here because the engine baseline is ~43 and even aggressive minutes only reach 48 — a rate or TOI lever cannot span that gap for him.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 133% above last season, 6 to 14.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (4.02 in the first half, 11.58 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 68% below where it started (3.03 in the first half, 0.96 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 26% below his 3-year rate last season (8.53 against 11.59).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes91% match
Max DomiC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs88% match
shared: PIM
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues86% match
Anthony ManthaLW,RW · New Jersey Devils86% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zach Benson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, Hits
Rickard RakellLW,RW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: SOG, Hits, PPP
Jake DeBruskLW,RW · Vancouver Canuckscovers 2
fills: SOG, PPP
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.17	15.89	14.67	+8%
5v5 TOI	13.11	12.86	12.30	+5%
PP TOI	2.50	1.73	1.24	+40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.17: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.11: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 2.50: ~2:30 PP role leaning PP1 over PP2 (playoff 2:36 PP + 17:06 TOI, 7yr/$52.5M extension). His 2025-26 1.73 full-season PP is a mirage — Q1 3.53 collapsed to Q3 0.82 / Q4 1.09; betting the demotion reverses.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.51	6.32	5.58	+13%
G/60	0.60	0.57	0.54	+6%
iSH%	9.26	9.02	9.65	-7%
ixG/60	–	0.93	0.79	+18%
iCF/60	–	11.05	10.69	+3%
iSCF/60	–	7.39	7.32	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	5.46	4.44	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.93 (89th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.79 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 13% (5v5 SOG/60 6.32 vs 5.58) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.82→0.98 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.43	11.62	8.58	+35%
IPP	63.77	63.80	63.69	+0%
1A/60	0.84	0.86	0.77	+12%
2A/60	0.45	0.72	0.33	+116%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.6% vs a 8.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.46 vs 4.44) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.72 vs 3-yr 0.33) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.50	1.73	1.24	+40%
PP iSH%	8.04	6.21	8.56	-27%
PP SOG/60	8.40	8.53	11.59	-26%
PP ixG/60	–	1.63	2.17	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.7→2.5 PP TOI/gp (~2:30 PP role leaning PP1 over PP2 (playoff 2:36 PP + 17:06 TOI, 7yr/$52.5M extension). His 2025-26 1.73 full-season PP is a mirage — Q1 3.53 collapsed to Q3 0.82 / Q4 1.09; betting the demotion reverses.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.61	3.01	2.94	+2%
Hits/60	2.70	2.87	2.24	+28%
Blks/60	1.16	1.08	1.80	-40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.86/60 and 2nd-half 3.39 vs a 2.87 season rate (2.24 3-yr) (37th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.70/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.78/60 and 2nd-half 0.85 below the 1.08 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.16/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.80 3-yr mark.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.01/60 (82nd pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.