Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3138 GP · 2y
TOI	14.45	14.53	14.61	13.78	15.51
PP TOI	1.66	1.66	1.55	1.77	1.95
G	▲20	18	22	15	20
A	▲29	31	39	23	26
PTS	▲49	49	61	38	46
PPP	8	7	8	6	10
SOG	145	140	150	131	175
PIM	38	45	63	28	36
Hits	56	55	65	46	46
Blocks	31	31	25	36	40

Sample: 80 GP · 1,000 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

103Igor Chernyshov9

104Scott Laughton8

105Tij Iginla8

106Taylor Hall7

107Oliver Bjorkstrand6

108Joel Farabee5

109Colton Dach4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): [SOFT - lowest conviction of the CAR bumps] 46 -> ~49. Both outside reads are above us (55.5 and 51.3) and the H2 rate is genuinely strong, but he is 35 and a career-best rate at 35 is exactly the case where the engine's hedge is defensible rather than blind. Took the LOWER outside read and hedged under it rather than chasing 55. PP left at 1.66 - no PP1 path. Revisit if the L2 with Stankoven and Blake holds.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 139% above where it started (0.49 in the first half, 1.17 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 63 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 45% above his 3-year rate last season (2.52 against 1.73).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 15% below his 3-year rate last season (1.66 against 1.95).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues92% match
Anthony ManthaLW,RW · New Jersey Devils92% match
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres91% match
Quinton ByfieldC,LW · Los Angeles Kings89% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Taylor Hall is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, Hits
Jake DeBruskLW,RW · Vancouver Canuckscovers 2
fills: SOG, PPP
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Alex OvechkinLW,RW · Washington Capitalscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.45	14.53	15.51	-6%
5v5 TOI	12.73	12.50	12.94	-3%
PP TOI	1.66	1.66	1.95	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.45: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.73: same coach (Rod Brind'Amour) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 13.1, Q4 13.5) over the full-year 12.5
PP TOI → 1.66: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.34	6.54	7.86	-17%
G/60	0.71	0.84	0.67	+26%
iSH%	11.20	12.84	8.51	+51%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.73	+9%
iCF/60	–	13.98	15.22	-8%
iSCF/60	–	8.16	8.20	-0%
iHDCF/60	–	3.60	3.36	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.73 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 6.54 vs 7.86) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.71→0.88 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.53	9.71	9.19	+6%
IPP	71.77	74.00	67.74	+9%
1A/60	0.79	0.84	0.74	+14%
2A/60	0.47	0.54	0.44	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 74.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.66	1.66	1.95	-15%
PP iSH%	16.62	11.97	19.99	-40%
PP SOG/60	10.97	11.28	10.05	+12%
PP ixG/60	–	2.52	1.73	+45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (12.0% vs 20.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.11	2.40	1.95	+23%
Hits/60	2.94	2.94	2.35	+25%
Blks/60	1.77	1.80	2.25	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.92/60 and 2nd-half 3.57 vs a 2.94 season rate (2.35 3-yr) (38th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.94/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.31/60 and 2nd-half 1.41 below the 1.80 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.77/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.25 3-yr mark.