Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2661 GP	H220 GP	H141 GP	Prev 325 GP · 1y
TOI	11.74	11.48	9.97	12.06	12.13
PP TOI	0.58	0.73	0.32	0.98	0.60
G	6	7	8	6	7
A	14	11	16	8	16
PTS	20	18	25	14	23
PPP	1	3	0	4	0
SOG	78	78	61	86	89
PIM	57	70	29	90	56
Hits	286	294	299	292	282
Blocks	38	39	31	43	39

Sample: 61 GP · 645 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

86Logan Stankoven7

87Alexander Wennberg6

88Kirby Dach5

89Colton Dach4

90Zack MacEwen4

91Christian Dvorak3

92Ross Colton3

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (4.02 in the first half, 16.70 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 82% above where it started (0.55 in the first half, 1.00 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 27% above last season, 11 to 14.

Top of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 98th percentile league-wide (20.35).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche97% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs95% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins92% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightning92% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Colton Dach is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year (EDM, traded): Jeff Blashill CHI · pre-trade → Kris Knoblauch EDM · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.74	11.48	12.13	-5%
5v5 TOI	10.77	10.58	11.40	-7%
PP TOI	0.58	0.73	0.60	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 14 · 6

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.74: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 10.77: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.58: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.17	5.02	4.42	+14%
G/60	0.42	0.37	0.42	-12%
iSH%	8.18	7.37	9.50	-22%
ixG/60	–	0.68	0.61	+11%
iCF/60	–	11.71	8.63	+36%
iSCF/60	–	6.78	4.63	+46%
iHDCF/60	–	3.07	2.95	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 14 · 6

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 7.4% vs 9.5% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.68 (59th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 8.2%, lifting the goal rate ~14%.

TailwindShot volume up 14% (5v5 SOG/60 5.02 vs 4.42) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.55→1.00 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.23	6.68	11.45	-42%
IPP	65.50	73.38	58.10	+26%
1A/60	0.39	0.37	0.42	-12%
2A/60	0.51	0.28	0.63	-56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 14 · 6

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 73.4% vs 58.1% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.71 vs 8.63) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.58	0.73	0.60	+23%
PP iSH%	5.49	24.95	0.00
PP SOG/60	4.94	5.37	20.13	-73%
PP ixG/60	–	1.24	3.31	-63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 14 · 6

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.7→0.6 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (25.0% vs 0.0% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.24) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.97	4.83	3.58	+35%
Hits/60	19.62	20.35	17.47	+16%
Blks/60	2.40	2.51	2.53	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 14 · 6

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 22.70/60 and 2nd-half 22.74 vs a 20.35 season rate (17.47 3-yr) (98th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 19.62/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.82/60 and 2nd-half 2.10 below the 2.51 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.40/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.53 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.37/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.