Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	20.07	20.46	18.97	19.45	18.51
PP TOI	3.27	3.35	3.35	3.35	2.28
G	15	18	25	12	11
A	33	38	40	36	24
PTS	48	56	65	48	35
PPP	▲15	15	19	12	9
SOG	96	96	98	95	94
PIM	19	18	21	16	17
Hits	36	29	34	24	41
Blocks	84	95	82	108	74

Sample: 80 GP · 1,097 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

84Marco Rossi9

85Tij Iginla8

86Logan Stankoven7

87Alexander Wennberg6

88Kirby Dach5

89Colton Dach4

90Zack MacEwen4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (7.17 in the first half, 20.51 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 47% above his 3-year rate last season (3.35 against 2.28).

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 40% below his 3-year rate last season (1.26 against 2.09).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matvei GridinRW · Calgary Flames90% match
shared: Blocks
Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken86% match
shared: Blocks
Mikael GranlundC,RW · Anaheim Ducks80% match
shared: Blocks
Ryan O'ReillyC · Nashville Predators79% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Wennberg is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.07	20.46	18.51	+10%
5v5 TOI	13.58	13.71	13.24	+4%
PP TOI	3.27	3.35	2.28	+47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.07: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.58: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.27: established top role held near 3.4 — the late dip (Q4 2.6) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.28	3.28	3.43	-4%
G/60	0.40	0.44	0.34	+29%
iSH%	12.10	13.41	9.95	+35%
ixG/60	–	0.40	0.36	+12%
iCF/60	–	5.96	6.51	-8%
iSCF/60	–	3.94	3.96	-0%
iHDCF/60	–	2.02	2.05	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.40 (35th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.36 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.89	8.92	8.82	+1%
IPP	66.86	74.89	54.32	+38%
1A/60	0.69	0.77	0.57	+35%
2A/60	0.42	0.44	0.40	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 74.9% vs 54.3% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.27	3.35	2.28	+47%
PP iSH%	22.38	32.02	15.40	+108%
PP SOG/60	5.74	5.59	7.20	-22%
PP ixG/60	–	1.85	1.69	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (32.0% vs 15.4% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.85) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.61	0.55	0.76	-28%
Hits/60	1.59	1.26	2.09	-40%
Blks/60	3.38	3.83	3.22	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (12th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.51/60 and 2nd-half 3.19 below the 3.83 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.38/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.22 3-yr mark.