Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2637 GP	H222 GP	H115 GP	Prev 3115 GP · 2y
TOI	14.43	13.66	13.19	13.44	17.10
PP TOI	1.76	1.37	1.24	1.57	2.95
G	14	18	11	27	17
A	19	15	19	11	26
PTS	33	33	30	38	43
PPP	9	4	4	5	16
SOG	112	104	93	120	136
PIM	54	69	56	87	59
Hits	104	117	119	115	109
Blocks	48	66	58	79	51

Sample: 37 GP · 440 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

85Tij Iginla8

86Logan Stankoven7

87Alexander Wennberg6

88Kirby Dach5

89Colton Dach4

90Zack MacEwen4

91Christian Dvorak3

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 86% above his 3-year rate last season (17.78 against 9.57).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 54% below his 3-year rate last season (1.37 against 2.95).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ridly GreigC,LW,RW · Ottawa Senators93% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings90% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings89% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kirby Dach is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 4
fills: SOG, G, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.43	13.66	17.10	-20%
5v5 TOI	11.99	11.90	13.17	-10%
PP TOI	1.76	1.37	2.95	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 0 · 13 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.43: reverts toward the 3-yr 17.1
5v5 TOI → 11.99: role tapered late (Q4 9.8 vs 11.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.76: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.3, Q4 1.8) over the full-year 1.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.06	6.13	6.22	-1%
G/60	0.89	1.09	0.60	+83%
iSH%	14.66	17.78	9.57	+86%
ixG/60	–	0.81	0.80	+1%
iCF/60	–	11.31	10.57	+7%
iSCF/60	–	6.68	6.93	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.54	4.00	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 0 · 13 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 17.8% vs a 9.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.81 (78th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 14.7% pulls the goal rate ~18% down.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.00 (1st half) to 0.68 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.05	11.96	8.77	+36%
IPP	56.09	59.00	52.53	+12%
1A/60	0.15	0.14	0.28	-49%
2A/60	0.45	0.55	0.36	+54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 0 · 13 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.0% vs a 8.8% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.55 vs 3-yr 0.36) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.76	1.37	2.95	-54%
PP iSH%	16.91	0.00	29.15	-100%
PP SOG/60	2.90	2.37	4.24	-44%
PP ixG/60	–	1.44	1.02	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 0 · 13 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.4→1.8 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.3, Q4 1.8) over the full-year 1.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 29.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.49	4.23	2.73	+55%
Hits/60	7.08	7.22	5.70	+27%
Blks/60	3.32	3.95	2.49	+58%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 0 · 13 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 11.59/60 and 2nd-half 8.38 vs a 7.22 season rate (5.70 3-yr) (76th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 7.08/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.95/60 (81st pct league-wide) → 3.32 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.14/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.