Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H241 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3176 GP · 3y
TOI	18.13	18.46	18.35	16.25	15.88
PP TOI	2.09	1.67	2.77	0.52	0.98
G	17	18	19	18	13
A	29	34	34	33	20
PTS	46	52	53	51	33
PPP	6	5	10	0	3
SOG	148	155	162	148	106
PIM	24	28	32	23	12
Hits	38	39	41	37	34
Blocks	67	53	53	53	71

Sample: 80 GP · 1,094 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

88Kirby Dach5

89Colton Dach4

90Zack MacEwen4

91Christian Dvorak3

92Ross Colton3

93Matt Savoie2

94Fraser Minten2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (1.08 in the first half, 3.32 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 70% above his 3-year rate last season (1.67 against 0.98).

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 83% above his 3-year rate last season (0.77 against 0.42).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 26% above last season, 53 to 67.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken90% match
shared: Blocks
Matvei GridinRW · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: Blocks
William KarlssonC · Vegas Golden Knights81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Christian Dvorak is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.13	18.46	15.88	+16%
5v5 TOI	13.44	13.68	12.19	+12%
PP TOI	2.09	1.67	0.98	+70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.13: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.44: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.09: same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 2.4) over the full-year 1.7

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.86	5.86	5.03	+16%
G/60	0.65	0.66	0.53	+24%
iSH%	11.01	11.26	10.59	+6%
ixG/60	–	0.92	0.61	+52%
iCF/60	–	10.30	9.84	+5%
iSCF/60	–	7.62	5.45	+40%
iHDCF/60	–	4.82	2.63	+83%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.92 (88th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.61 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 16% (5v5 SOG/60 5.86 vs 5.03) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.06 (1st half) to 0.77 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.36	12.07	8.14	+48%
IPP	61.46	60.13	71.74	-16%
1A/60	0.65	0.77	0.42	+83%
2A/60	0.39	0.38	0.47	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.1% vs a 8.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.82 vs 2.63) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.09	1.67	0.98	+70%
PP iSH%	9.60	13.00	7.13	+82%
PP SOG/60	10.31	10.31	9.71	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	2.99	2.29	+31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.7→2.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 2.4) over the full-year 1.7) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.99 vs 2.29) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.39	1.37	0.62	+122%
Hits/60	1.90	1.92	1.87	+3%
Blks/60	2.58	2.25	3.07	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.92/60 (23rd pct league-wide) → 1.90 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.25/60 (41st pct league-wide) → 2.58 projected.