Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	16.30	14.78	15.26	13.85	–
PP TOI	1.30	0.83	1.06	0.61	–
G	22	18	23	14	–
A	▲25	19	28	11	–
PTS	▲47	37	50	24	–
PPP	▲10	7	6	8	–
SOG	▲172	138	174	104	–
PIM	23	24	23	25	–
Hits	15	14	14	14	–
Blocks	35	37	32	42	–

Sample: 82 GP · 991 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

90Zack MacEwen4

91Christian Dvorak3

92Ross Colton3

93Matt Savoie2

94Fraser Minten2

95Marco Kasper1

96Mavrik Bourque1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Promoted to McDavid's wing, with the bet placed on his rates more than his minutes. Phil's sheet and the outside read both open him at left wing with McDavid and Hyman, and both put him on the second power-play unit. He finished 2025-26 in that spot: 9 goals and 19 points in 24 games after the Olympic break, on 2.5 shots a game. Ice time is held to 16.3 all-strengths, a step up from his rookie 14.78 and well short of Hyman's 19.66, because Babcock is new and a 22-year-old rarely holds a top-line promotion for a full season. The production comes from better linemates: 47 points on 16.3 minutes is 2.11 per 60 against his rookie 1.88. Power play moves 1.16 to 1.30, held under the 1.88 he ran in Q4, because that quarter was Draisaitl injury cover and the healthy top 5 take over 82% of Edmonton's power-play time. Goals hold at 22, where our engine and the outside read agree, and the lift goes on assists, 21 to 25, and power-play points, 9 to 10. Lands 47, between our 42 and the outside 53 per-82.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 28 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 50 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 56% above last season, 0.83 to 1.30.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 43% above last season, 7 to 10.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues83% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks82% match
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes81% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matt Savoie is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	16.30	14.78	n/a
5v5 TOI	13.30	12.09	n/a
PP TOI	1.30	0.83	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.30: Headline ice time reconciled with the components: 13.6 at even strength, 1.30 on the power play, 1.40 on the penalty kill. A step up from his rookie 14.78, well short of Hyman's 19.66.
5v5 TOI → 13.30: Tracks the even-strength bet, holding the same 0.3 gap between 5v5 and EV he ran as a rookie (12.09 against 12.34).
PP TOI → 1.30: Second unit on all 3 reads. Small lift off 1.16 for the games he covers on the top unit, which he already did last March. Held well under his 1.88 Q4, because that stretch was Draisaitl injury cover and the healthy top 5 take over 82% of Edmonton's power-play time.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	7.52	6.84	n/a
G/60	0.59	0.54	n/a
iSH%	7.89	7.89	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.99	n/a
iCF/60	–	12.40	n/a
iSCF/60	–	7.75	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	4.05	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.85→1.11 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +6% and role +4% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.97	9.97	n/a
IPP	52.07	52.07	n/a
1A/60	0.48	0.48	n/a
2A/60	0.48	0.48	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.0%, IPP 52.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.30	0.83	n/a
PP iSH%	38.44	38.44	n/a
PP SOG/60	12.44	11.42	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	3.23	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.8→1.3 PP TOI/gp (Second unit on all 3 reads. Small lift off 1.16 for the games he covers on the top unit, which he already did last March. Held well under his 1.88 Q4, because that stretch was Draisaitl injury cover and the healthy top 5 take over 82% of Edmonton's power-play time.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.17	1.33	n/a
Hits/60	0.85	0.85	n/a
Blks/60	1.80	2.06	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (5th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.97/60 and 2nd-half 1.65 below the 2.06 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.