Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 373 GP · 1y
TOI	15.41	15.49	16.50	13.69	12.68
PP TOI	1.22	1.13	1.22	1.03	0.58
G	20	20	27	13	12
A	23	21	27	15	16
PTS	43	41	54	28	28
PPP	5	5	6	4	3
SOG	143	147	154	140	90
PIM	26	22	36	8	9
Hits	101	78	115	41	52
Blocks	33	21	19	23	42

Sample: 82 GP · 1,129 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

93Matt Savoie2

94Fraser Minten2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindRaise Bourque baseline toward 50-60; supports a higher Colton read than the capped view.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 115 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 27 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 57% below his 3-year rate last season (1.06 against 2.48).

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 37% above his 3-year rate last season (6.91 against 5.03).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken80% match
Tyler SeguinC,RW · Dallas Stars80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mavrik Bourque is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year (DAL, traded): Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.41	15.49	12.68	+22%
5v5 TOI	14.78	13.77	11.28	+22%
PP TOI	1.22	1.13	0.58	+94%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.41: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.78: same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.1, Q4 15.8) over the full-year 13.8
PP TOI → 1.22: same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.2, Q4 1.4) over the full-year 1.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.91	6.91	5.03	+37%
G/60	0.87	0.85	0.66	+29%
iSH%	12.61	12.30	13.12	-6%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.73	+10%
iCF/60	–	11.00	10.49	+5%
iSCF/60	–	6.38	7.14	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	3.88	3.64	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.73 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 37% (5v5 SOG/60 6.91 vs 5.03) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.79	9.91	9.44	+5%
IPP	63.08	63.91	60.83	+5%
1A/60	0.43	0.48	0.36	+33%
2A/60	0.42	0.37	0.44	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.9%, IPP 63.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.22	1.13	0.58	+94%
PP iSH%	12.10	9.09	14.29	-36%
PP SOG/60	5.37	7.15	9.94	-28%
PP ixG/60	–	1.26	1.07	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.1→1.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.2, Q4 1.4) over the full-year 1.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (9.1% vs 14.3%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.00	0.74	0.44	+68%
Hits/60	4.88	4.09	2.99	+37%
Blks/60	1.29	1.06	2.48	-57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.81/60 and 2nd-half 5.54 vs a 4.09 season rate (2.99 3-yr) (50th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.88/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.60/60 and 2nd-half 0.86 below the 1.06 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.29/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.48 3-yr mark.