Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 321 GP · 1y
TOI	15.87	15.55	16.23	13.58	13.02
PP TOI	1.42	0.98	1.73	0.26	0.85
G	17	17	21	13	12
A	21	18	21	16	8
PTS	38	35	42	28	20
PPP	3	3	4	2	4
SOG	138	115	129	102	94
PIM	15	20	12	27	8
Hits	154	142	114	169	187
Blocks	47	51	43	59	39

Sample: 82 GP · 1,011 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

91Christian Dvorak3

92Ross Colton3

93Matt Savoie2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 120% above where it started (9.45 in the first half, 20.81 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 45% above last season, 0.98 to 1.42.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken82% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights82% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Fraser Minten is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.87	15.55	13.02	+19%
5v5 TOI	13.38	12.34	11.53	+7%
PP TOI	1.42	0.98	0.85	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.87: holds last year's role; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 13.38: same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 13.0, Q4 14.1) over the full-year 12.3; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.42: same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.7, Q4 1.6) over the full-year 1.0; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.44	5.28	4.95	+7%
G/60	0.80	0.77	0.74	+4%
iSH%	14.72	14.58	14.95	-2%
ixG/60	–	0.66	0.58	+14%
iCF/60	–	10.91	10.90	+0%
iSCF/60	–	6.70	6.69	+0%
iHDCF/60	–	3.32	2.72	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.66 (57th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.58 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on one real season (25.0 GP before it) with a rising role — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +4% and role +3% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.64	10.50	6.14	+71%
IPP	58.70	57.35	66.44	-14%
1A/60	0.35	0.42	0.25	+68%
2A/60	0.15	0.42	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.5% vs a 6.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.32 vs 2.72) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.42	0.98	0.85	+15%
PP iSH%	1.58	7.17	0.00
PP SOG/60	10.69	10.46	6.69	+56%
PP ixG/60	–	2.32	2.41	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.0→1.4 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.7, Q4 1.6) over the full-year 1.0; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.91	1.19	0.50	+138%
Hits/60	8.13	8.12	11.64	-30%
Blks/60	2.19	2.55	2.48	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 5.83/60 and 2nd-half 6.15 below the 8.12 season rate — projected DOWN to 8.13/60, weighting the recent decline over the 11.64 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.12/60 and 2nd-half 2.00 below the 2.55 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.19/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.48 3-yr mark.