Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2673 GP	H233 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3222 GP · 3y
TOI	12.63	12.52	12.07	12.61	13.41
PP TOI	0.79	0.80	0.85	0.75	1.42
G	14	10	10	10	18
A	17	17	10	22	19
PTS	31	27	20	33	37
PPP	3	0	0	0	8
SOG	147	172	165	178	157
PIM	28	15	10	18	48
Hits	171	179	173	184	175
Blocks	38	28	20	35	49

Sample: 73 GP · 841 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

89Colton Dach4

90Zack MacEwen4

91Christian Dvorak3

92Ross Colton3

93Matt Savoie2

94Fraser Minten2

95Marco Kasper1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

RiskCap Colton scoring at 35-40; peripheral floor remains. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindRaise Bourque baseline toward 50-60; supports a higher Colton read than the capped view.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 73% below where it started (1.01 in the first half, 0.27 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 40% above last season, 10 to 14.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 44% below his 3-year rate last season (0.80 against 1.42).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken91% match
shared: Hits
Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks86% match
shared: Hits
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers86% match
shared: Hits
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ross Colton is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year (COL, traded): Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.63	12.52	13.41	-7%
5v5 TOI	11.15	11.53	11.58	-0%
PP TOI	0.79	0.80	1.42	-44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 14

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.63: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.15: role tapered late (Q4 10.5 vs 11.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.79: role tapered late (Q4 0.4 vs 0.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	10.12	10.12	7.94	+27%
G/60	0.67	0.50	0.75	-33%
iSH%	6.64	4.94	9.42	-48%
ixG/60	–	1.15	0.97	+19%
iCF/60	–	19.82	15.99	+24%
iSCF/60	–	10.41	9.34	+12%
iHDCF/60	–	4.49	4.93	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 14

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextStrong peripheral (hits/shots) floor; scoring gated by role unless traded. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.9% vs 9.4% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 1.15 (99th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.6%, lifting the goal rate ~34%.

TailwindShot volume up 27% (5v5 SOG/60 10.12 vs 7.94) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.99	8.18	7.64	+7%
IPP	58.02	52.51	71.28	-26%
1A/60	0.67	0.71	0.63	+13%
2A/60	0.33	0.36	0.30	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 14

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 52.5% sits below the 71.3% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 19.82 vs 15.99) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.79	0.80	1.42	-44%
PP iSH%	13.77	0.00	17.65	-100%
PP SOG/60	9.33	8.26	12.94	-36%
PP ixG/60	–	2.17	2.51	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 14

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.8 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.26	0.93	2.57	-64%
Hits/60	10.94	11.05	10.78	+2%
Blks/60	1.86	1.78	2.96	-40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 14

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextStrong peripheral (hits/shots) floor; scoring gated by role unless traded. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindElite hits volume (87th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (10.94/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.23/60 and 2nd-half 1.29 below the 1.78 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.86/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.96 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.