Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H239 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	17.57	17.60	16.92	16.64	16.50
PP TOI	2.83	2.43	2.81	2.08	1.41
G	23	24	35	14	20
A	31	33	40	27	27
PTS	54	57	74	41	47
PPP	14	15	25	6	5
SOG	175	162	171	154	169
PIM	29	20	21	19	37
Hits	72	84	48	116	112
Blocks	28	42	25	57	25

Sample: 82 GP · 1,174 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

72Gavin McKenna31

73Jonathan Huberdeau31

74Josh Doan30

75Alexis Lafrenière28

76Jake Neighbours24

77Marcus Foligno24

78Tanner Jeannot24

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 35 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 74 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 72% above his 3-year rate last season (2.43 against 1.41).

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 45% above last season, 20 to 29.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Quinton ByfieldC,LW · Los Angeles Kings89% match
Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruins87% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken87% match
shared: Hits
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres86% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alexis Lafrenière is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Mikko RantanenRW · Dallas Starscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year: Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.57	17.60	16.50	+7%
5v5 TOI	14.25	14.33	14.42	-1%
PP TOI	2.83	2.43	1.41	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.57: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.25: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.83: same coach (Mike Sullivan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.8, Q4 3.5) over the full-year 2.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.28	6.28	7.07	-11%
G/60	0.70	0.71	0.78	-9%
iSH%	11.20	11.31	11.02	+3%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.74	+15%
iCF/60	–	12.77	13.39	-5%
iSCF/60	–	8.22	7.94	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.83	3.62	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.74 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 6.28 vs 7.07) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.20	10.42	9.89	+5%
IPP	64.81	67.29	61.43	+10%
1A/60	0.63	0.51	0.71	-29%
2A/60	0.44	0.56	0.39	+43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.4%, IPP 67.3%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.56 vs 3-yr 0.39) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.83	2.43	1.41	+72%
PP iSH%	17.55	26.44	11.11	+138%
PP SOG/60	10.76	10.25	10.95	-6%
PP ixG/60	–	2.23	1.60	+40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive for Rangers top-six/PP1; some 5v5 upside for young wingers. · Coaching landscape report

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.4→2.8 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Mike Sullivan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.8, Q4 3.5) over the full-year 2.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.23 vs 1.60) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.81	0.71	1.58	-55%
Hits/60	3.65	4.24	5.56	-24%
Blks/60	1.50	2.14	1.17	+83%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.04/60 and 2nd-half 2.48 below the 4.24 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.65/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.56 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.62/60 and 2nd-half 1.34 below the 2.14 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.50/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.17 3-yr mark.