Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2656 GP	H223 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3197 GP · 3y
TOI	12.82	12.85	12.37	12.90	14.65
PP TOI	0.18	0.15	0.21	0.11	0.68
G	12	12	23	4	13
A	12	7	4	10	17
PTS	24	19	27	14	30
PPP	2	3	7	0	1
SOG	89	95	116	80	96
PIM	83	98	114	87	96
Hits	243	264	267	261	278
Blocks	53	69	64	72	52

Sample: 56 GP · 621 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

74Josh Doan30

75Alexis Lafrenière28

76Jake Neighbours24

77Marcus Foligno24

78Tanner Jeannot24

79Yakov Trenin24

80Anthony Mantha23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (3.36 in the first half, 16.62 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 62% below his 3-year rate last season (0.19 against 0.51).

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 41% above his 3-year rate last season (3.38 against 2.40).

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 27% above where it started (5.12 in the first half, 6.50 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adam KlapkaRW · Calgary Flames96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Mark KastelicC,RW · Boston Bruins96% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Mathieu OlivierRW · Columbus Blue Jackets96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Tanner JeannotLW,RW · Boston Bruins95% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Marcus Foligno is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.82	12.85	14.65	-12%
5v5 TOI	10.92	11.10	12.07	-8%
PP TOI	0.18	0.15	0.68	-78%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 15 · 8

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.82: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.92: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.18: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.7

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.41	5.50	4.77	+15%
G/60	0.55	0.48	0.60	-21%
iSH%	10.23	8.73	12.67	-31%
ixG/60	–	0.67	0.61	+9%
iCF/60	–	9.17	9.08	+1%
iSCF/60	–	5.79	5.88	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	3.28	3.48	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 15 · 8

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 8.7% vs 12.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.67 (57th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.2%, lifting the goal rate ~15%.

TailwindShot volume up 15% (5v5 SOG/60 5.50 vs 4.77) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.16	4.87	8.25	-41%
IPP	69.91	71.85	67.54	+6%
1A/60	0.33	0.19	0.51	-62%
2A/60	0.34	0.29	0.35	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 15 · 8

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 4.9%, IPP 71.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.18	0.15	0.68	-78%
PP iSH%	21.00	50.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	35.88	28.92	8.95	+223%
PP ixG/60	–	6.23	1.78	+251%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 15 · 8

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.2 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 0.7) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 6.23 vs 1.78) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	5.47	6.27	4.94	+27%
Hits/60	15.98	17.18	16.29	+5%
Blks/60	2.99	3.38	2.40	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 15 · 8

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (96th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (15.98/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.80/60 and 2nd-half 3.08 below the 3.38 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.99/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.40 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.48/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.