Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H239 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3229 GP · 3y
TOI	13.38	13.28	12.78	13.40	14.08
PP TOI	0.15	0.11	0.16	0.06	0.22
G	8	6	6	6	11
A	13	17	13	21	9
PTS	21	23	19	27	20
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	103	98	97	99	122
PIM	49	38	33	42	51
Hits	▲370	412	419	406	219
Blocks	33	39	29	48	33

Sample: 82 GP · 954 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

76Jake Neighbours24

77Marcus Foligno24

78Tanner Jeannot24

79Yakov Trenin24

80Anthony Mantha23

81JJ Peterka23

82Viktor Arvidsson22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): His hit rate has climbed 4 straight years, from 8.59 per 60 to 22.70, which is a trend rather than one loud season. Our own testing says to carry a hit rate forward instead of pulling it toward the mean, and the outside read agrees we were low. This lands above that read and short of a full carry.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 93% above his 3-year rate last season (25.03 against 12.95).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 21 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 29 pace in the second half after 48 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche89% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs88% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins88% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers87% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Yakov Trenin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.38	13.28	14.08	-6%
5v5 TOI	11.42	11.64	11.90	-2%
PP TOI	0.15	0.11	0.22	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.38: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.42: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.15: same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.2) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.79	5.79	6.72	-14%
G/60	0.42	0.38	0.55	-31%
iSH%	7.18	6.56	8.18	-20%
ixG/60	–	0.91	0.82	+11%
iCF/60	–	11.38	13.61	-16%
iSCF/60	–	7.42	7.47	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	4.46	3.65	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.6% vs 8.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.91 (88th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 7.2%, lifting the goal rate ~9%.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 5.79 vs 6.72) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.75	10.50	6.69	+57%
IPP	53.64	53.70	53.24	+1%
1A/60	0.52	0.75	0.22	+245%
2A/60	0.23	0.31	0.18	+77%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.5% vs a 6.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.46 vs 3.65) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.15	0.11	0.22	-51%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	9.24	13.71	10.73	+28%
PP ixG/60	–	1.65	1.72	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.2) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.57	2.26	2.98	-24%
Hits/60	20.20	25.03	12.95	+93%
Blks/60	1.61	1.95	1.61	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet a very high hits baseline; elite single-category banger asset. · Fantasy deep-dive analysis

TailwindElite hits volume (100th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (20.20/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.20/60 and 2nd-half 1.35 below the 1.95 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.61/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.61 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.13/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.