Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H239 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3198 GP · 3y
TOI	12.63	12.64	11.98	13.04	12.54
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.08	0.09	0.43
G	7	6	4	9	8
A	13	17	9	25	10
PTS	20	23	14	34	19
PPP	0	1	0	2	1
SOG	80	83	76	91	92
PIM	98	70	57	84	108
Hits	263	255	266	243	294
Blocks	52	62	60	64	47

Sample: 77 GP · 851 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

75Alexis Lafrenière28

76Jake Neighbours24

77Marcus Foligno24

78Tanner Jeannot24

79Yakov Trenin24

80Anthony Mantha23

81JJ Peterka23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 25 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 40% above last season, 70 to 98.

Top of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 96th percentile league-wide (16.63).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adam KlapkaRW · Calgary Flames97% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Mark KastelicC,RW · Boston Bruins96% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Jack McBainC,LW · Utah Mammoth96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Marcus FolignoLW · Minnesota Wild95% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tanner Jeannot is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.63	12.64	12.54	+1%
5v5 TOI	10.72	11.06	11.19	-1%
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.43	-80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 16 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.63: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.72: role tapered late (Q4 10.2 vs 11.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.13: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.07	5.07	5.36	-5%
G/60	0.44	0.42	0.49	-14%
iSH%	8.59	8.28	9.09	-9%
ixG/60	–	0.82	0.71	+16%
iCF/60	–	12.19	10.85	+12%
iSCF/60	–	7.54	7.15	+6%
iHDCF/60	–	3.95	3.84	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 16 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.82 (78th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.71 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.95 (1st half) to 0.72 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.74	7.85	7.24	+8%
IPP	68.09	71.57	57.82	+24%
1A/60	0.41	0.56	0.24	+131%
2A/60	0.38	0.42	0.38	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 16 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 71.6% vs 57.8% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.19 vs 10.85) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.43	-80%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	6.23
PP SOG/60	2.24	0.00	11.21	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	2.11	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 16 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	5.08	4.37	6.82	-36%
Hits/60	17.68	16.63	18.87	-12%
Blks/60	3.14	3.31	2.88	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 16 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 19.55/60 and 2nd-half 18.37 vs a 16.63 season rate (18.87 3-yr) (96th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 17.68/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.31/60 (68th pct league-wide) → 3.14 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.56/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.