Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H233 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3231 GP · 3y
TOI	13.80	13.85	13.51	13.38	13.44
PP TOI	0.28	0.37	0.31	0.42	0.22
G	12	10	10	10	12
A	17	17	23	13	16
PTS	29	27	33	23	28
PPP	1	0	0	0	1
SOG	94	116	127	107	82
PIM	94	92	124	67	68
Hits	303	296	314	283	284
Blocks	48	47	34	57	49

Sample: 75 GP · 871 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

47Will Smith49

48Nick Schmaltz49

49Jared McCann49

50Jack McBain45

51Josh Norris43

52Brayden Schenn42

53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 124 pace in the second half after 67 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 70% above his 3-year rate last season (1.12 against 0.66).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 49% below his 3-year rate last season (7.04 against 13.93).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Tanner JeannotLW,RW · Boston Bruins96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins94% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Adam KlapkaRW · Calgary Flames94% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jack McBain is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year: André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.80	13.85	13.44	+3%
5v5 TOI	11.46	11.62	11.21	+4%
PP TOI	0.28	0.37	0.22	+73%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.80: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.46: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.28: role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.82	6.82	4.68	+46%
G/60	0.65	0.48	0.65	-26%
iSH%	9.66	7.04	13.93	-49%
ixG/60	–	1.12	0.66	+70%
iCF/60	–	13.56	9.66	+40%
iSCF/60	–	8.54	6.56	+30%
iHDCF/60	–	5.78	3.52	+64%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 7.0% vs 13.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 1.12 (98th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 9.7%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

TailwindShot volume up 46% (5v5 SOG/60 6.82 vs 4.68) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.96→1.22 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.90	10.01	9.47	+6%
IPP	55.76	53.55	66.47	-19%
1A/60	0.62	0.62	0.65	-4%
2A/60	0.37	0.41	0.35	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 53.5% sits below the 66.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.56 vs 9.66) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.78 vs 3.52) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.28	0.37	0.22	+73%
PP iSH%	8.27	0.00	14.26	-100%
PP SOG/60	4.41	8.59	8.45	+2%
PP ixG/60	–	2.21	1.55	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.4→0.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 14.3%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	6.41	5.37	4.10	+31%
Hits/60	18.86	18.24	18.09	+1%
Blks/60	1.98	2.07	2.59	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 23.86/60 and 2nd-half 20.30 vs a 18.24 season rate (18.09 3-yr) (96th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 18.86/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.80/60 and 2nd-half 1.37 below the 2.07 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.98/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.59 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.41/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.