Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H237 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	16.67	16.77	15.85	15.78	17.92
PP TOI	2.53	2.19	2.63	1.81	2.31
G	18	19	19	18	20
A	28	22	26	17	34
PTS	46	40	45	36	54
PPP	11	9	13	6	11
SOG	128	122	131	114	153
PIM	59	70	74	66	56
Hits	163	184	184	185	167
Blocks	49	42	51	34	46

Sample: 80 GP · 1,081 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

49Jared McCann49

50Jack McBain45

51Josh Norris43

52Brayden Schenn42

53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

54Ryan O'Reilly42

55Boone Jenner41

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 17 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 46% above where it started (1.81 in the first half, 2.65 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 22% above last season, 9 to 11.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 25% above his 3-year rate last season (13.41 against 10.75).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings92% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Ridly GreigC,LW,RW · Ottawa Senators90% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Will CuylleLW,RW · New York Rangers90% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brayden Schenn is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year (STL, traded): Peter DeBoer NYI · pre-trade → Jim Montgomery STL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.67	16.77	17.92	-6%
5v5 TOI	13.09	13.52	13.71	-1%
PP TOI	2.53	2.19	2.31	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.67: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.09: role tapered late (Q4 12.3 vs 13.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 2.53: same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.6, Q4 3.0) over the full-year 2.2; Hold PPP near last year's boosted level rather than regressing to career.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.46	4.55	5.27	-14%
G/60	0.55	0.61	0.57	+8%
iSH%	12.40	13.41	10.75	+25%
ixG/60	–	0.73	0.56	+31%
iCF/60	–	9.37	9.82	-5%
iSCF/60	–	6.32	6.00	+5%
iHDCF/60	–	3.16	2.65	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.73 (65th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.56 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 4.55 vs 5.27) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.64→0.85 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.94	8.44	9.82	-14%
IPP	66.35	65.88	67.19	-2%
1A/60	0.60	0.55	0.69	-21%
2A/60	0.40	0.22	0.51	-57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.4%, IPP 65.9%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.16 vs 2.65) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.53	2.19	2.31	-5%
PP iSH%	11.89	14.29	11.21	+27%
PP SOG/60	9.67	9.59	11.28	-15%
PP ixG/60	–	1.74	2.00	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold PPP near last year's boosted level rather than regressing to career.

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.2→2.5 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.6, Q4 3.0) over the full-year 2.2; Hold PPP near last year's boosted level rather than regressing to career.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.63	2.99	2.53	+18%
Hits/60	8.80	9.82	8.44	+16%
Blks/60	2.38	2.00	1.92	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.82/60 (85th pct league-wide) → 8.80 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.25/60 and 2nd-half 2.54 vs a 2.00 season rate (1.92 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.38/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.33/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.