Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3225 GP · 3y
TOI	16.34	16.67	15.85	15.64	16.12
PP TOI	1.31	1.49	1.31	1.66	0.99
G	13	14	13	15	15
A	18	24	18	31	20
PTS	31	39	31	46	35
PPP	7	12	6	18	5
SOG	129	129	119	138	157
PIM	60	65	76	54	51
Hits	117	119	134	105	105
Blocks	46	52	58	45	48

Sample: 81 GP · 993 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

80Curtis Douglas13

81Martin Pospisil10

82Pavel Zacha10

83Erik Haula10

84Marco Rossi9

85Tij Iginla8

86Logan Stankoven7

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 66% below his 3-year rate last season (0.18 against 0.52).

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 49% above his 3-year rate last season (1.49 against 0.99).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs93% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Ridly GreigC,LW,RW · Ottawa Senators92% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Brayden SchennC,LW · New York Islanders92% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues92% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Erik Haula is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 4
fills: SOG, G, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year (NSH, traded): Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.34	16.67	16.12	+3%
5v5 TOI	12.20	12.27	12.74	-4%
PP TOI	1.31	1.49	0.99	+49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.34: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.20: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.31: role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.68	5.86	7.39	-21%
G/60	0.49	0.54	0.61	-11%
iSH%	8.64	9.22	8.23	+12%
ixG/60	–	0.79	0.91	-13%
iCF/60	–	12.32	13.54	-9%
iSCF/60	–	6.40	7.72	-17%
iHDCF/60	–	3.62	4.25	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 9.2% sits near the 8.2% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.79 (74th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 5.86 vs 7.39) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.51	6.91	8.48	-19%
IPP	58.23	66.85	52.49	+27%
1A/60	0.28	0.18	0.52	-66%
2A/60	0.30	0.48	0.23	+109%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 66.9% vs 52.5% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.48 vs 3-yr 0.23) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.31	1.49	0.99	+49%
PP iSH%	16.53	24.97	10.42	+140%
PP SOG/60	8.11	7.97	12.87	-38%
PP ixG/60	–	1.75	1.70	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.5→1.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (25.0% vs 10.4% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.75) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.39	3.50	2.60	+35%
Hits/60	6.68	6.76	5.69	+19%
Blks/60	2.29	2.60	1.84	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.80/60 and 2nd-half 7.78 vs a 6.76 season rate (5.69 3-yr) (74th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.68/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.60/60 (51st pct league-wide) → 2.29 projected.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.50/60 (87th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.