Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3102 GP · 2y
TOI	15.75	15.45	14.96	15.12	14.99
PP TOI	1.57	1.56	1.47	1.65	1.68
G	▲21	21	31	12	16
A	▲27	23	25	22	26
PTS	▲48	45	55	34	42
PPP	8	9	12	6	8
SOG	180	168	168	168	197
PIM	18	25	14	36	18
Hits	57	51	64	38	55
Blocks	30	22	21	24	35

Sample: 81 GP · 1,088 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

83Erik Haula10

84Marco Rossi9

85Tij Iginla8

86Logan Stankoven7

87Alexander Wennberg6

88Kirby Dach5

89Colton Dach4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Bumped 43 -> ~47. Deliberately hedged toward the SKEPTICAL outside read (50.5) and away from the bullish one (55.3): the bullish case needs a PP1 promotion that is simply not in the minutes - PP TOI was 1.56 on the season and 1.59 in Q4, dead flat. His Q4 PP p60 of 10.51 is ~29 total minutes of PP time and is noise. PP deployment left untouched at 1.57. Age 23, so outside the young-riser gate.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 31 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 6 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 38% below his 3-year rate last season (1.21 against 1.94).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 17% above last season, 23 to 27.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks91% match
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres89% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres88% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth87% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Logan Stankoven is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.75	15.45	14.99	+3%
5v5 TOI	13.81	13.44	12.78	+5%
PP TOI	1.57	1.56	1.68	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.75: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.81: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 1.57: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.78	7.55	9.53	-21%
G/60	0.73	0.83	0.64	+30%
iSH%	9.37	10.99	6.72	+64%
ixG/60	–	1.02	1.03	-1%
iCF/60	–	14.17	17.17	-17%
iSCF/60	–	9.65	9.85	-2%
iHDCF/60	–	4.19	4.51	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 11.0% vs a 6.7% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 1.02 (96th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.4% pulls the goal rate ~12% down.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 7.55 vs 9.53) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.82→1.24 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.90	9.34	8.37	+12%
IPP	58.54	57.38	59.96	-4%
1A/60	0.42	0.39	0.50	-23%
2A/60	0.51	0.50	0.50	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.3%, IPP 57.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.57	1.56	1.68	-7%
PP iSH%	13.52	17.40	10.71	+62%
PP SOG/60	10.91	10.92	9.80	+11%
PP ixG/60	–	2.79	2.29	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextTemper the ceiling; deployment caps under Brind'Amour. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~1.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.79 vs 2.29) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.89	1.27	0.37	+246%
Hits/60	3.03	2.76	3.08	-10%
Blks/60	1.50	1.21	1.94	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.13/60 and 2nd-half 3.44 vs a 2.76 season rate (3.08 3-yr) (35th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.03/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (8th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.