Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2650 GP	H225 GP	H125 GP	Prev 3164 GP · 2y
TOI	16.95	17.48	16.03	16.70	17.49
PP TOI	2.44	2.41	2.58	2.24	2.25
G	19	20	23	16	22
A	29	38	39	36	27
PTS	48	57	62	52	50
PPP	13	23	30	16	11
SOG	128	108	93	123	151
PIM	29	16	20	13	37
Hits	63	77	102	53	49
Blocks	40	48	36	59	39

Sample: 50 GP · 674 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

81Martin Pospisil10

82Pavel Zacha10

83Erik Haula10

84Marco Rossi9

85Tij Iginla8

86Logan Stankoven7

87Alexander Wennberg6

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

RiskDiscount toward streamer value pending a clearer role. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 102 pace in the second half after 53 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 30 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 73% below his 3-year rate last season (0.58 against 2.16).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 24% below last season, 38 to 29.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames90% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets87% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks86% match
Pavel BuchnevichC,LW,RW · St. Louis Blues85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Marco Rossi is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 3
fills: PIM, Hits, SOG
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year (VAN, traded): John Hynes MIN · pre-trade → Adam Foote VAN · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.95	17.48	17.49	-0%
5v5 TOI	13.00	13.49	14.42	-6%
PP TOI	2.44	2.41	2.25	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 6 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.95: holds last year's role; Discount toward streamer value pending a clearer role.
5v5 TOI → 13.00: holds last year's role; Discount toward streamer value pending a clearer role.
PP TOI → 2.44: new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 2.5 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.22	4.27	5.43	-21%
G/60	0.70	0.80	0.82	-2%
iSH%	16.58	18.74	15.02	+25%
ixG/60	–	0.61	0.71	-14%
iCF/60	–	8.63	10.40	-17%
iSCF/60	–	6.58	6.93	-5%
iHDCF/60	–	3.74	3.60	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 6 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 18.7% vs a 15.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.61 (48th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 16.6% pulls the goal rate ~13% down.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 4.27 vs 5.43) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.71	10.66	9.01	+18%
IPP	66.57	65.50	67.97	-4%
1A/60	0.52	0.44	0.58	-25%
2A/60	0.37	0.44	0.33	+33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 6 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.7% vs a 9.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.44 vs 3-yr 0.33) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.44	2.41	2.25	+7%
PP iSH%	12.65	23.03	12.65	+82%
PP SOG/60	7.58	6.47	11.55	-44%
PP ixG/60	–	0.58	2.16	-73%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 6 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.4 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (23.0% vs 12.7% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.58) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.95	0.71	1.32	-46%
Hits/60	4.14	4.18	2.43	+72%
Blks/60	2.03	2.22	1.93	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 6 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 6.34/60 and 2nd-half 5.08 vs a 4.18 season rate (2.43 3-yr) (51st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.14/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.46/60 and 2nd-half 1.88 below the 2.22 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.03/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.93 3-yr mark.