Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2628 GP	H220 GP	H18 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	16.11	15.06	14.52	15.55	–
PP TOI	1.20	1.13	1.11	1.20	–
G	▼23	26	25	31	–
A	▼28	29	21	51	–
PTS	▼51	56	45	82	–
PPP	▼14	15	12	20	–
SOG	▼142	135	119	174	–
PIM	▼18	17	24	-0	–
Hits	52	50	57	31	–
Blocks	▼35	38	32	54	–

Sample: 28 GP · 383 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

100Ross Johnston10

101Pavel Zacha10

102Erik Haula10

103Igor Chernyshov9

104Scott Laughton8

105Tij Iginla8

106Taylor Hall7

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (opens w/ Celebrini in a featured role; one day could become someone like Svechnikov) blended with 2025-26 NHL (28 GP) at w=0.50. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here. PERIPHERALS RE-DERIVED 2026-07-27: the rookie-baseline blend applied its w=0.50 blend weighting to hits/blocks/PIM as well as to scoring, which is wrong for role stats. Hits and blocks are the most persistent, least noisy things a young player produces (they are excluded from the engine's 3-yr rate hedge for exactly that reason), and that side of the blend carries no real information about them, so halving the observed rate toward it just discards the best signal available. Re-derived at 65/35 toward his own observed rate over projected TOI rather than 100%, since rookie minutes can still move.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 108% above where it started (1.57 in the first half, 3.27 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 51 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets88% match
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken87% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks86% match
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Igor Chernyshov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	16.11	15.06	n/a
5v5 TOI	14.56	13.68	n/a
PP TOI	1.20	1.13	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 8 · 7 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.11: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 14.56: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.20: role tapered late (Q4 0.8 vs 1.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.46	6.27	n/a
G/60	0.97	0.94	n/a
iSH%	14.99	14.99	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.81	n/a
iCF/60	–	10.97	n/a
iSCF/60	–	8.30	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	4.39	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 8 · 7 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Chernyshov as a top-six SJS winger for 2026-27 with real G/A output; his usage with Celebrini raises the assist/PP ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.14 (1st half) to 0.66 (2nd).

TailwindAge 20 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 20 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	13.49	13.49	n/a
IPP	58.24	58.24	n/a
1A/60	1.10	1.10	n/a
2A/60	0.16	0.16	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 8 · 7 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Chernyshov as a top-six SJS winger for 2026-27 with real G/A output; his usage with Celebrini raises the assist/PP ceiling.

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 13.5%, IPP 58.2%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.20	1.13	n/a
PP iSH%	50.00	50.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	10.75	11.34	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	2.78	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 8 · 7 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.03	0.94	n/a
Hits/60	2.71	2.66	n/a
Blks/60	1.85	1.88	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 8 · 7 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.78/60 and 2nd-half 3.27 vs a 2.66 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.71/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.44/60 and 2nd-half 1.22 below the 1.88 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.85/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.