Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2668 GP	H242 GP	H126 GP	Prev 3204 GP · 3y
TOI	15.59	15.62	15.42	14.13	14.58
PP TOI	2.27	2.26	2.30	2.19	1.88
G	18	15	17	11	18
A	29	24	27	20	29
PTS	47	39	43	31	47
PPP	11	7	6	9	12
SOG	168	164	170	155	151
PIM	22	24	23	25	19
Hits	64	65	66	63	53
Blocks	43	40	43	35	36

Sample: 68 GP · 860 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

94Zachary L'Heureux16

95Artturi Lehkonen16

96Connor McMichael16

97Cole Perfetti13

98Josh Anderson13

99Frank Vatrano12

100Ross Johnston10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindDiscount last year's totals as injury-suppressed; raise baseline on improved iSCF. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 57% above last season, 7 to 11.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 17 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 55% above where it started (1.70 in the first half, 2.63 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 46% below his 3-year rate last season (4.83 against 8.89).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames89% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks88% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks87% match
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Cole Perfetti is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.59	15.62	14.58	+7%
5v5 TOI	13.14	12.66	12.39	+2%
PP TOI	2.27	2.26	1.88	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 21 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.59: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.14: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 13.1, Q4 13.8) over the full-year 12.7
PP TOI → 2.27: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.25	7.25	6.93	+5%
G/60	0.46	0.35	0.62	-43%
iSH%	6.37	4.83	8.89	-46%
ixG/60	–	0.78	0.75	+4%
iCF/60	–	14.84	12.75	+16%
iSCF/60	–	8.36	7.43	+12%
iHDCF/60	–	3.55	3.44	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 21 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.8% vs 8.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.78 (73rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.4%, lifting the goal rate ~32%.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.87	7.35	8.92	-18%
IPP	73.91	77.66	68.08	+14%
1A/60	0.66	0.63	0.73	-14%
2A/60	0.42	0.49	0.43	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 21 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.3%, IPP 77.7%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 14.84 vs 12.75) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.27	2.26	1.88	+20%
PP iSH%	14.22	12.47	15.48	-19%
PP SOG/60	9.68	9.38	11.13	-16%
PP ixG/60	–	2.35	1.66	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 21 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.35 vs 1.66) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.27	1.39	1.09	+28%
Hits/60	3.34	3.55	3.01	+18%
Blks/60	2.08	2.02	2.06	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 21 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.55/60 (44th pct league-wide) → 3.34 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.61/60 and 2nd-half 2.18 vs a 2.02 season rate (2.06 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.08/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.