Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2625 GP	H225 GP	H125-26	Prev 362 GP · 1y
TOI	13.57	13.39	13.25	–	12.04
PP TOI	0.45	0.45	0.45	–	0.40
G	▲12	13	13	–	7
A	▼8	3	3	–	13
PTS	20	16	16	–	20
PPP	▲4	3	3	–	1
SOG	▼108	105	105	–	103
PIM	▲80	69	69	–	70
Hits	▼205	210	210	–	262
Blocks	▲45	49	49	–	33

Sample: 25 GP · 273 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

91Tyler Toffoli18

92Dakota Joshua17

93Mackie Samoskevich17

94Zachary L'Heureux16

95Artturi Lehkonen16

96Connor McMichael16

97Cole Perfetti13

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (agitator, hits everything, 80+ PIM; one day could become someone like Marchand) blended with 2025-26 NHL (25 GP) at w=0.50. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here. PERIPHERALS RE-DERIVED 2026-07-27: the rookie-baseline blend applied its w=0.50 blend weighting to hits/blocks/PIM as well as to scoring, which is wrong for role stats. Hits and blocks are the most persistent, least noisy things a young player produces (they are excluded from the engine's 3-yr rate hedge for exactly that reason), and that side of the blend carries no real information about them, so halving the observed rate toward it just discards the best signal available. Re-derived at 65/35 toward his own observed rate over projected TOI rather than 100%, since rookie minutes can still move.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (16.06 against 5.96).

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 56% above his 3-year rate last season (2.63 against 1.69).

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs96% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins93% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Josh AndersonLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens93% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightning93% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zachary L'Heureux is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year (NSH, traded): Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.57	13.39	12.04	+11%
5v5 TOI	11.16	10.96	10.89	+1%
PP TOI	0.45	0.45	0.40	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 6 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.57: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 11.16: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.45: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.64	5.48	6.04	-9%
G/60	0.69	0.88	0.36	+144%
iSH%	12.22	16.06	5.96	+169%
ixG/60	–	0.91	0.85	+7%
iCF/60	–	12.26	12.35	-1%
iSCF/60	–	8.54	7.37	+16%
iHDCF/60	–	5.26	4.00	+31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 6 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.91 (88th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.85 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.43	7.01	8.62	-19%
IPP	50.75	50.29	51.80	-3%
1A/60	0.18	0.00	0.44	-100%
2A/60	0.23	0.00	0.36	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 6 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.0%, IPP 50.3%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.26 vs 4.00) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.45	0.45	0.40	+12%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	32.99	37.67	19.49	+93%
PP ixG/60	–	5.66	3.20	+77%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 6 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.5 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 5.66 vs 3.20) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.66	4.60	4.71	-2%
Hits/60	15.69	13.80	17.23	-20%
Blks/60	2.11	2.63	1.69	+56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 6 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold a strong HITS/PIM banger line despite low TOL; scoring capped. · Fantasy hockey transition analysis

TailwindProject L'Heureux as a HITS/PIM banger for 2026-27 with matchup-dependent scoring; the physical value is the floor.

TailwindElite hits volume (92nd pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (15.69/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.63/60 (52nd pct league-wide) → 2.11 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.22/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.