Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H232 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3228 GP · 3y
TOI	14.32	14.02	13.25	13.80	15.51
PP TOI	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.12	1.15
G	15	16	15	17	16
A	10	10	12	8	12
PTS	25	26	27	25	28
PPP	0	0	0	0	2
SOG	111	101	94	108	149
PIM	99	91	109	77	85
Hits	143	147	139	154	174
Blocks	43	49	51	47	43

Sample: 72 GP · 808 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

95Artturi Lehkonen16

96Connor McMichael16

97Cole Perfetti13

98Josh Anderson13

99Frank Vatrano12

100Ross Johnston10

101Pavel Zacha10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 50% above where it started (0.61 in the first half, 0.92 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 finished the year 68% above where it started (2.75 in the first half, 4.62 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 40% below his 3-year rate last season (0.22 against 0.37).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche93% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs93% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Jack McBainC,LW · Utah Mammoth92% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Ridly GreigC,LW,RW · Ottawa Senators92% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Josh Anderson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.32	14.02	15.51	-10%
5v5 TOI	11.43	11.23	12.84	-13%
PP TOI	0.12	0.08	1.15	-93%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.32: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.43: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.12: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.97	5.12	6.76	-24%
G/60	0.60	0.74	0.70	+6%
iSH%	12.05	14.45	10.31	+40%
ixG/60	–	0.75	0.85	-11%
iCF/60	–	10.24	12.87	-20%
iSCF/60	–	6.98	8.59	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	3.56	4.12	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 14.5% vs a 10.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.75 (68th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 12.0% pulls the goal rate ~19% down.

RiskShot volume down 24% (5v5 SOG/60 5.12 vs 6.76) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.61→0.92 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.49	9.43	9.55	-1%
IPP	55.83	58.60	52.44	+12%
1A/60	0.27	0.22	0.37	-40%
2A/60	0.25	0.30	0.21	+45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.4%, IPP 58.6%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.30 vs 3-yr 0.21) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.12	0.08	1.15	-93%
PP iSH%	4.54	0.00	7.83	-100%
PP SOG/60	26.86	29.51	11.64	+154%
PP ixG/60	–	2.30	1.96	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 7.8%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	5.73	5.20	4.08	+27%
Hits/60	8.67	9.06	9.22	-2%
Blks/60	2.24	2.38	2.03	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.06/60 (82nd pct league-wide) → 8.67 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.38/60 (45th pct league-wide) → 2.24 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.30/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.