Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2667 GP	H241 GP	H126 GP	Prev 3152 GP · 3y
TOI	16.18	16.08	15.21	16.01	19.78
PP TOI	0.75	0.81	0.41	1.45	2.75
G	18	16	15	17	30
A	28	31	26	37	24
PTS	46	46	41	54	53
PPP	3	4	0	9	12
SOG	164	162	144	189	237
PIM	43	54	53	55	45
Hits	153	180	179	181	157
Blocks	78	81	80	83	85

Sample: 67 GP · 889 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

52Brayden Schenn42

53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

54Ryan O'Reilly42

55Boone Jenner41

56Logan Cooley40

57Mark Kastelic39

58Anton Lundell38

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (1.01 against 0.40).

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 72% below where it started (1.45 in the first half, 0.40 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 46% above where it started (7.68 in the first half, 11.25 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (1.06).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wild92% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Shane PintoC · Ottawa Senators87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Ducks85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wild85% match
shared: Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Boone Jenner is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year (CBJ, traded): Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.18	16.08	19.78	-19%
5v5 TOI	13.30	13.27	14.75	-10%
PP TOI	0.75	0.81	2.75	-70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 10 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.18: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.30: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.75: role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.35	7.69	8.17	-6%
G/60	0.76	0.74	0.94	-21%
iSH%	10.33	9.62	11.48	-16%
ixG/60	–	1.06	0.95	+11%
iCF/60	–	15.79	15.31	+3%
iSCF/60	–	8.97	8.73	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	4.72	4.47	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 10 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 9.6% vs 11.5% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 1.06 (97th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.3%, lifting the goal rate ~3%.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.55	9.61	9.30	+3%
IPP	72.16	77.98	58.32	+34%
1A/60	0.82	1.01	0.40	+152%
2A/60	0.42	0.40	0.32	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 10 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 78.0% vs 58.3% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.75	0.81	2.75	-70%
PP iSH%	15.15	12.46	15.90	-22%
PP SOG/60	11.12	8.83	12.64	-30%
PP ixG/60	–	2.33	2.81	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 10 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.7 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.09	2.43	1.90	+28%
Hits/60	8.20	9.51	7.31	+30%
Blks/60	3.72	3.71	3.75	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 10 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.51/60 (83rd pct league-wide) → 8.20 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.71/60 (75th pct league-wide) → 3.72 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.13/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.