Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2669 GP	H228 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3242 GP · 3y
TOI	16.50	17.33	16.95	16.43	16.67
PP TOI	1.31	1.30	1.54	1.14	0.84
G	▼16	24	22	25	21
A	▲21	18	23	14	23
PTS	▼37	41	45	39	44
PPP	4	1	3	0	3
SOG	196	209	231	194	195
PIM	51	58	60	57	56
Hits	▲170	181	146	204	139
Blocks	54	57	58	57	54

Sample: 69 GP · 908 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

56Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

57Boone Jenner41

58Emil Heineman41

59Blake Coleman41

60Jason Zucker40

61Jeffrey Viel40

62Lawson Crouse39

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Age 35, and the ice time is already going the wrong way, so this projects decline rather than splitting the difference. His chance quality has been flat for 4 years while his goal totals swung on finishing luck alone, and last season's 24-goal pace was the high end of that swing. The scoring fade for age belongs to his finishing, not his physical game, so the hits get set back to where his own rate and the outside read both put them.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (5.16 in the first half, 15.64 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 54% above his 3-year rate last season (1.30 against 0.84).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 50% above his 3-year rate last season (11.46 against 7.63).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Boone JennerC,LW · Washington Capitals92% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Ducks87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Shane PintoC · Ottawa Senators85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, G
Anders LeeLW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: Hits, SOG, PIM, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Blake Coleman is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year (CGY, traded): Ryan Huska full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.50	17.33	16.67	+4%
5v5 TOI	12.48	13.16	13.74	-4%
PP TOI	1.31	1.30	0.84	+54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 9 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.50: age 35 ice-time decline; 17.33 -> 16.5 rather than holding last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.48: display only, so the 5v5 line on the card matches the all-strengths cut
PP TOI → 1.31: same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.3, Q4 1.9) over the full-year 1.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.97	9.25	8.48	+9%
G/60	0.90	1.06	0.65	+64%
iSH%	10.00	11.46	7.63	+50%
ixG/60	–	1.02	0.97	+5%
iCF/60	–	15.33	15.99	-4%
iSCF/60	–	9.38	9.91	-5%
iHDCF/60	–	5.28	4.75	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 9 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindNudge scoring up on the environment upgrade; hold the multi-cat banger floor. · Fantasy hockey transition analysis

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.02 (96th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.97 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.03	9.12	7.07	+29%
IPP	70.09	68.27	72.83	-6%
1A/60	0.55	0.53	0.56	-5%
2A/60	0.40	0.26	0.52	-50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 9 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.1% vs a 7.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.28 vs 4.75) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.31	1.30	0.84	+54%
PP iSH%	12.14	0.00	15.56	-100%
PP SOG/60	13.70	9.33	13.20	-29%
PP ixG/60	–	2.05	2.45	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 9 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.39	2.58	2.44	+6%
Hits/60	7.78	9.51	6.90	+38%
Blks/60	2.27	2.25	2.31	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 9 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindNudge scoring up on the environment upgrade; hold the multi-cat banger floor. · Fantasy hockey transition analysis

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 7.05/60 and 2nd-half 7.70 below the 9.51 season rate — projected DOWN to 7.78/60, weighting the recent decline over the 6.90 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.25/60 (41st pct league-wide) → 2.27 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.