Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2644 GP	H230 GP	H114 GP	Prev 3106 GP · 2y
TOI	16.29	15.84	14.73	15.53	18.01
PP TOI	3.11	3.28	3.08	3.61	3.06
G	25	24	22	31	29
A	▲32	39	34	54	22
PTS	▲57	63	56	85	50
PPP	17	17	11	32	18
SOG	141	129	131	108	163
PIM	55	52	61	35	51
Hits	▼48	45	55	19	171
Blocks	53	50	57	40	59

Sample: 44 GP · 514 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

48Nick Schmaltz49

49Jared McCann49

50Jack McBain45

51Josh Norris43

52Brayden Schenn42

53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

54Ryan O'Reilly42

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hits anomaly: 5v5 hits60 was 8-11 in 2023-24/2024-25 then crashed to 2.68 in 2025-26 (45 pace). Empirical 2022-26 scan shows big hit-rate drops persist ~80% of the time, so set to his recent level. The engine's hedge-toward-body-of-work on HITS was also removed systemically, but his case is extreme enough to pin. PP TOI hedged 3.28->3.11 (PP goal-threat decline + crowded forward group).

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

RiskApply a durability discount; the per-82 pace is fine but availability is the risk. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 61 pace in the second half after 35 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 72% below his 3-year rate last season (2.68 against 9.59).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Juraj SlafkovskyLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens91% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits, A
Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitals88% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Stars85% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Elias LindholmC · Boston Bruins84% match
shared: Blocks, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Josh Norris is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: SOG, G
Cole CaufieldLW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: G, SOG
Pavel DorofeyevLW,RW · New York Rangerscovers 2
fills: G, SOG
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 2
fills: SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.29	15.84	18.01	-12%
5v5 TOI	11.82	11.70	12.40	-6%
PP TOI	3.11	3.28	3.06	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 13 · 12 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.29: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.82: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.11: Light hedge from his 3.28 Buffalo PP1 usage to ~his 3-yr average (3.15/2.98/3.28). Real, sustained same-team data, so only a gentle trim — pricing in a PP goal-threat collapse (g60 2.15->0.83, 0 PP goals in Q4) and a more crowded 2026-27 forward group (healthy Kulich, Doan/Quinn/Benson), which put his PP1 hold in the mix rather than locked.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.13	5.13	5.98	-14%
G/60	0.87	0.93	0.91	+2%
iSH%	17.05	18.13	15.28	+19%
ixG/60	–	0.62	0.63	-1%
iCF/60	–	9.09	10.68	-15%
iSCF/60	–	7.00	6.35	+10%
iHDCF/60	–	3.73	3.33	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 13 · 12 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 18.1% vs a 15.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.62 (50th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 17.0% pulls the goal rate ~6% down.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 5.13 vs 5.98) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.50→0.66 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.27	12.56	7.58	+66%
IPP	60.76	60.52	61.74	-2%
1A/60	0.60	0.93	0.14	+583%
2A/60	0.31	0.47	0.27	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 13 · 12 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.6% vs a 7.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.73 vs 3.33) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.11	3.28	3.06	+7%
PP iSH%	18.91	11.10	21.12	-47%
PP SOG/60	7.91	7.48	9.61	-22%
PP ixG/60	–	1.41	1.47	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 13 · 12 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (11.1% vs 21.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.89	1.40	2.83	-50%
Hits/60	3.62	2.68	9.59	-72%
Blks/60	3.03	3.03	2.87	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 13 · 12 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.89/60 and 2nd-half 2.88 vs a 2.68 season rate (9.59 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.62/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.74/60 and 2nd-half 3.38 vs a 3.03 season rate (2.87 3-yr) (63rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.03/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.