Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2658 GP	H223 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3206 GP · 3y
TOI	14.67	14.89	14.37	14.18	13.82
PP TOI	0.60	0.65	0.97	0.44	0.08
G	16	17	18	16	15
A	16	14	19	11	14
PTS	32	31	37	27	29
PPP	3	4	11	0	0
SOG	103	92	95	90	101
PIM	54	58	75	47	52
Hits	133	141	136	145	125
Blocks	50	27	34	22	55

Sample: 58 GP · 729 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

94Fraser Minten2

95Marco Kasper1

100Noah Cates0

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 85% above last season, 27 to 50.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 90% above his 3-year rate last season (21.90 against 11.50).

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 50% above where it started (0.56 in the first half, 0.85 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings92% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers92% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs92% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Josh AndersonLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens92% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brett Howden is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.67	14.89	13.82	+8%
5v5 TOI	12.49	12.57	12.37	+2%
PP TOI	0.60	0.65	0.08	+700%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 19 · 5 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.67: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.49: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.60: new coach (Ryan Craig) — late-year 0.9 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.59	4.52	5.53	-18%
G/60	0.73	0.99	0.64	+56%
iSH%	15.87	21.90	11.50	+90%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.67	-3%
iCF/60	–	8.56	10.15	-16%
iSCF/60	–	6.33	6.76	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	3.54	3.37	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 19 · 5 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextRegress goals hard; keep the HITS banger floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 21.9% vs a 11.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 15.9% pulls the goal rate ~26% down.

RiskShot volume down 18% (5v5 SOG/60 4.52 vs 5.53) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.56→0.85 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.17	9.32	8.97	+4%
IPP	58.02	59.92	55.48	+8%
1A/60	0.33	0.25	0.45	-44%
2A/60	0.25	0.25	0.23	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 19 · 5 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.3%, IPP 59.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.60	0.65	0.08	+700%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	6.92	9.57	7.19	+33%
PP ixG/60	–	0.91	0.58	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 19 · 5 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.91 vs 0.58) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.33	3.37	2.87	+17%
Hits/60	7.60	7.98	7.04	+13%
Blks/60	1.66	1.23	2.75	-55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 19 · 5 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextRegress goals hard; keep the HITS banger floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextHits role-stable at 7.98/60 (79th pct league-wide) → 7.60 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.91/60 and 2nd-half 1.42 vs a 1.23 season rate (2.75 3-yr) (8th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.66/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.