Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	16.22	16.24	15.07	16.08	16.02
PP TOI	1.90	2.06	1.95	2.17	1.24
G	16	18	14	22	13
A	25	29	32	26	22
PTS	41	47	46	48	35
PPP	8	9	6	12	4
SOG	124	132	120	144	110
PIM	20	44	66	20	10
Hits	101	102	117	86	84
Blocks	51	51	42	60	54

Sample: 82 GP · 969 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

97Brett Howden1

98Evan Rodrigues0

99Cole Sillinger0

100Noah Cates0

101Ben Kindel0

102Yanni Gourde-1

103Justin Sourdif-1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 66 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 65% above his 3-year rate last season (2.06 against 1.24).

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 65% above his 3-year rate last season (2.72 against 1.65).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets89% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames87% match
shared: Blocks
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Noah Cates is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.22	16.24	16.02	+1%
5v5 TOI	11.55	11.82	12.48	-5%
PP TOI	1.90	2.06	1.24	+65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.22: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.55: role tapered late (Q4 10.9 vs 11.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.90: reverts toward the 3-yr 1.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.70	5.70	5.32	+7%
G/60	0.66	0.68	0.59	+15%
iSH%	11.63	11.93	11.14	+7%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.68	+11%
iCF/60	–	10.03	10.04	-0%
iSCF/60	–	6.38	6.28	+2%
iHDCF/60	–	3.84	3.58	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.68 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.83	10.38	8.61	+21%
IPP	71.23	74.69	63.56	+18%
1A/60	0.60	0.68	0.48	+41%
2A/60	0.40	0.43	0.42	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.4% (3-yr 8.6%) AND IPP 74.7% (3-yr 63.6%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~5%.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.90	2.06	1.24	+65%
PP iSH%	13.15	10.37	15.17	-32%
PP SOG/60	10.03	10.32	7.27	+42%
PP ixG/60	–	2.72	1.65	+65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.9 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.72 vs 1.65) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.65	2.29	0.48	+374%
Hits/60	5.84	5.82	4.50	+29%
Blks/60	2.56	2.72	2.33	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 7.46/60 and 2nd-half 6.92 vs a 5.82 season rate (4.50 3-yr) (67th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.84/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.72/60 (55th pct league-wide) → 2.56 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.